{ "ticker": { "uuid": "698bda77-67f9-4e8d-9872-ca0715acc8d5", "symbol": "BTPS", "name": "Amundi Italy BTP Daily (-2x) Inverse UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 61.808, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 57.143, "architecture_energy": 59.321, "architecture_maturity": 3.174, "architecture_confidence": 57.902, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.76, "rotation_up": 70.03, "upward_expansion": 81.19, "deceleration": 51.8, "rotation_down": 10.81, "downward_expansion": 12.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.043066, 17.860127, 17.809967, 17.793101 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 17.952, "trend_reference": 17.6924, "distance_from_trend": 0.014673, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.214098, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.01439, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.459336, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.045362, "excess_performance": -0.007949, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.014673, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009241, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.01439, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02244, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.044593, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041002, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.045362, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.729694, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1638, "relative_activity": 0.2721, "balance": 0.729694, "dry_up": 0.597274, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015567, "annualized_volatility": 0.146022, "from_high_reference": -0.046375, "from_low_reference": 0.07684 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.6924, "fair_value_reference": 18.214098, "structural_low": 16.671, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.02624, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.013549, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.122503, "worst_return": -0.114095, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.075943, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.078426, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.188833, "worst_return": -0.162143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.075465, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.078709, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.292744, "worst_return": -0.16133, "sufficient": true }, { 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"relative_strength": -1.950989, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.119683, "energy": 37.324557, "activity_lines": [ 17.494801, 17.572346, 17.718914, 17.677802 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.1, "volume": 11818, "typical_volume": 6917.2, "trend": 17.620833, "fair_value": 18.246893, "relative_strength": 0.262493, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.513076, "energy": 17.909874, "activity_lines": [ 17.694667, 17.654, 17.750181, 17.710026 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.1, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5991.9, "trend": 17.641133, "fair_value": 18.237983, "relative_strength": -0.057377, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.406136, "energy": 32.486093, "activity_lines": [ 17.864134, 17.7284, 17.774643, 17.74094 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.167999, "volume": 926, "typical_volume": 5983.3, "trend": 17.670367, "fair_value": 18.227008, "relative_strength": -1.13721, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.917681, "energy": 51.202951, "activity_lines": [ 18.020133, 17.8174, 17.803076, 17.774931 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.952, "volume": 1638, "typical_volume": 6019.85, "trend": 17.6924, "fair_value": 18.214098, "relative_strength": -4.459336, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.142698, "energy": 59.321433, "activity_lines": [ 18.043066, 17.860127, 17.809967, 17.793101 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }