{ "ticker": { "uuid": "69933230-f6e1-4270-b09c-7ce199b60bbc", "symbol": "VTR", "name": "Vitura SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 94.363, "architecture_energy": 90.917, "architecture_maturity": 22.0, "architecture_confidence": 73.961, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.27, "rotation_up": 83.65, "upward_expansion": 92.3, "deceleration": 44.69, "rotation_down": 8.04, "downward_expansion": 18.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.562667, 4.300727, 4.177048, 4.138194 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.3, "trend_reference": 4.064667, "distance_from_trend": 0.30392, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.205705, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.264472, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 12.356059, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.380208, "excess_performance": 0.326897, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.30392, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022643, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.264472, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.237125, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.123561, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.298213, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.380208, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.65496, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1462, "relative_activity": 2.990387, "balance": 3.65496, "dry_up": 2.383923, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048186, "annualized_volatility": 0.571435, "from_high_reference": -0.123967, "from_low_reference": 0.635802 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.064667, "fair_value_reference": 7.205705, "structural_low": 3.68, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.168605, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.120624, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.168605, "worst_return": -0.168605, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.232558, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.204194, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.232558, "worst_return": -0.232558, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.319767, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.314032, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.319767, "worst_return": -0.319767, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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3.910545, 4.024476, 4.00271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4.02, "volume": 60, "typical_volume": 278.7, "trend": 3.952667, "fair_value": 7.515064, "relative_strength": -13.753087, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.674108, "energy": 11.480832, "activity_lines": [ 3.929333, 3.925455, 4.022476, 4.008387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.26, "volume": 1358, "typical_volume": 337.55, "trend": 3.978, "fair_value": 7.435321, "relative_strength": -7.789659, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.064114, "energy": 25.554035, "activity_lines": [ 4.042667, 3.981091, 4.042381, 4.028215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.12, "volume": 734, "typical_volume": 366.4, "trend": 3.99, "fair_value": 7.355321, "relative_strength": -10.324498, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.064799, "energy": 30.662732, "activity_lines": [ 4.090667, 4.008364, 4.047048, 4.037376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.26, "volume": 1108, "typical_volume": 420.55, "trend": 4.007333, "fair_value": 7.276218, "relative_strength": -7.952234, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.068271, "energy": 41.903159, "activity_lines": [ 4.166667, 4.061455, 4.063524, 4.054796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.3, "volume": 1462, "typical_volume": 488.9, "trend": 4.064667, "fair_value": 7.205705, "relative_strength": 12.356059, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 94.362554, "energy": 90.916705, "activity_lines": [ 4.562667, 4.300727, 4.177048, 4.138194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }