{ "ticker": { "uuid": "69939b96-942e-4239-b2e7-af4ae19d8168", "symbol": "RBD", "name": "Reabold Resources Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -87.895, "architecture_energy": 91.424, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.157, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.47, "rotation_up": 13.48, "upward_expansion": 21.59, "deceleration": 37.04, "rotation_down": 80.73, "downward_expansion": 99.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.723333, 0.763, 0.840381, 0.886086 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.65, "trend_reference": 0.943333, "distance_from_trend": -0.310954, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.717885, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.094562, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.448173, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.1875, "excess_performance": -0.238735, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.310954, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.105685, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.094562, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.340547, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.214482, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.506081, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.1875, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.884273, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 212907, "relative_activity": 0.780411, "balance": 0.884273, "dry_up": 0.472394, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.116581, "annualized_volatility": 0.570872, "from_high_reference": -0.59375, "from_low_reference": 0.857143 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.943333, "fair_value_reference": 0.717885, "structural_low": 0.63, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.028682, "positive_rate": 0.342105, "directional_follow_through": 0.605263, "median_excess_return": -0.039883, "regime_survival": 0.815789, "best_return": 1.45283, "worst_return": -0.329268, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.121163, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.12267, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 1.093023, "worst_return": -0.494118, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.228, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.303204, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.104651, "worst_return": -0.588235, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.056604, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.232558, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.113043, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.307692, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.255556, 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"close": 0.79, "volume": 90802, "typical_volume": 291406.35, "trend": 0.935, "fair_value": 0.727885, "relative_strength": -0.36686, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.053032, "energy": 55.487986, "activity_lines": [ 0.81, 0.85, 0.921381, 0.941161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.79, "volume": 68038, "typical_volume": 291236.65, "trend": 0.945333, "fair_value": 0.725897, "relative_strength": -1.531451, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.18851, "energy": 64.273909, "activity_lines": [ 0.798, 0.833273, 0.90519, 0.931806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.77, "volume": 134064, "typical_volume": 289461.6, "trend": 0.953333, "fair_value": 0.723782, "relative_strength": -5.380933, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.045194, "energy": 70.328162, "activity_lines": [ 0.785667, 0.815636, 0.887619, 0.920495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.73, "volume": 100493, "typical_volume": 273038.0, "trend": 0.96, "fair_value": 0.72109, "relative_strength": -11.531237, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.38214, "energy": 80.450431, "activity_lines": [ 0.764667, 0.794818, 0.866857, 0.906086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.65, "volume": 212907, "typical_volume": 272813.8, "trend": 0.943333, "fair_value": 0.717885, "relative_strength": -21.448173, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.89466, "energy": 91.424131, "activity_lines": [ 0.723333, 0.763, 0.840381, 0.886086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }