{ "ticker": { "uuid": "699512cb-f38f-4f55-8fe6-d87b73480564", "symbol": "W2YF34", "name": "Wayfair Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 79.755, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 60.107, "architecture_energy": 47.437, "architecture_maturity": 62.0, "architecture_confidence": 69.381, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.36, "rotation_up": 58.55, "upward_expansion": 53.47, "deceleration": 47.5, "rotation_down": 26.81, "downward_expansion": 14.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.812, 13.542364, 12.354619, 12.018796 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15.84, "trend_reference": 12.206333, "distance_from_trend": 0.297687, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.588526, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.651975, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 14.725564, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.178571, "excess_performance": 0.23562, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.297687, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079161, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.651975, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.676636, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.147256, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.51671, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.178571, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 29.75353, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16198, "relative_activity": 10.101653, "balance": 29.75353, "dry_up": 2.647178, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075855, "annualized_volatility": 0.687203, "from_high_reference": -0.137255, "from_low_reference": 0.76 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.206333, "fair_value_reference": 9.588526, "structural_low": 9.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.008077, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.004547, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.307159, "worst_return": -0.249143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.103175, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.148478, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.741222, "worst_return": -0.181912, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.037507, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.032756, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.959688, "worst_return": -0.499429, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.411014, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.345574, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.457143, "worst_return": 0.364885, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.27193, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.164571, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037037, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.225266, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.149462, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.326504, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.420635, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.170351, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.352068, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.199088, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.256143, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.059361, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.323417, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.104603, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 9.91, "volume": 852, "typical_volume": 1016.15, "trend": 6.941667, "fair_value": 15.767391, "relative_strength": -4.204828, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.08743, 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11.782323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.96, "volume": 708, "typical_volume": 1145.9, "trend": 12.389, "fair_value": 9.528974, "relative_strength": -14.01114, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.879417, "energy": 45.618226, "activity_lines": [ 13.076667, 12.779273, 11.760048, 11.745871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.05, "volume": 3, "typical_volume": 843.7, "trend": 12.270667, "fair_value": 9.549808, "relative_strength": -8.206715, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.14259, "energy": 37.408715, "activity_lines": [ 12.954667, 12.941636, 11.928048, 11.788516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.84, "volume": 16198, "typical_volume": 1603.5, "trend": 12.206333, "fair_value": 9.588526, "relative_strength": 14.725564, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 60.106879, "energy": 47.43678, "activity_lines": [ 13.812, 13.542364, 12.354619, 12.018796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }