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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.172, "architecture_energy": 41.191, "architecture_maturity": 61.649, "architecture_confidence": 44.623, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.69, "rotation_up": 41.88, "upward_expansion": 65.51, "deceleration": 68.3, "rotation_down": 24.69, "downward_expansion": 17.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 95.374668, 95.394184, 91.333515, 89.492285 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 94.110001, "trend_reference": 87.575116, "distance_from_trend": 0.07462, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 103.789451, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.09326, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.92534, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.099961, "excess_performance": 0.035321, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.07462, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033612, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.09326, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.122615, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.039253, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102595, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.099961, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.43358, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10095, "relative_activity": 2.897823, "balance": 0.43358, "dry_up": 1.355905, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046567, "annualized_volatility": 0.206941, "from_high_reference": -0.158431, "from_low_reference": 0.18832 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 87.575116, "fair_value_reference": 103.789451, "structural_low": 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97.17267, 93.385387, 89.089467, 87.857618 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 96.080002, "volume": 879, "typical_volume": 3495.0, "trend": 86.781487, "fair_value": 103.879304, "relative_strength": 1.882409, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.274336, "energy": 85.692702, "activity_lines": [ 97.197336, 94.46243, 89.963539, 88.486556 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 95.42, "volume": 5520, "typical_volume": 3382.5, "trend": 87.159712, "fair_value": 103.840115, "relative_strength": -0.475622, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.372311, "energy": 56.511179, "activity_lines": [ 96.495335, 95.146487, 90.734751, 89.043879 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 94.110001, "volume": 10095, "typical_volume": 3483.65, "trend": 87.575116, "fair_value": 103.789451, "relative_strength": -3.92534, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.172302, "energy": 41.190965, "activity_lines": [ 95.374668, 95.394184, 91.333515, 89.492285 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }