{ "ticker": { "uuid": "69995fbc-7973-4d76-8fdd-a261a092c4e9", "symbol": "600638", "name": "Shanghai New Huang Pu Industrial Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.049, "architecture_energy": 44.177, "architecture_maturity": 80.48, "architecture_confidence": 67.325, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.15, "rotation_up": 26.34, "upward_expansion": 18.7, "deceleration": 66.9, "rotation_down": 46.7, "downward_expansion": 71.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.704667, 4.677228, 5.057897, 5.402643 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.89, "trend_reference": 5.890236, "distance_from_trend": -0.169813, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.320455, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.080906, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.813663, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.34713, "excess_performance": -0.303926, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.169813, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064398, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.080906, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.264203, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.168137, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117737, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.34713, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.476414, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44130212, "relative_activity": 0.916196, "balance": 0.476414, "dry_up": 1.309608, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098667, "annualized_volatility": 0.306954, "from_high_reference": -0.358268, "from_low_reference": 0.137209 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.890236, "fair_value_reference": 5.320455, "structural_low": 4.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.06418, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": 0.024411, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.275362, "worst_return": -0.26945, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.070151, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.043018, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.287995, "worst_return": -0.273245, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.090396, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.095493, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.361666, "worst_return": -0.303605, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-26.782747, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.179427, "energy": 89.430558, "activity_lines": [ 4.596697, 4.943379, 5.412936, 5.74922 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.53, "volume": 69304474, "typical_volume": 46788998.05, "trend": 6.033569, "fair_value": 5.332888, "relative_strength": -20.754756, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.870989, "energy": 84.133277, "activity_lines": [ 4.53438, 4.808523, 5.295141, 5.649979 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.38, "volume": 61791580, "typical_volume": 47044473.9, "trend": 5.987236, "fair_value": 5.32674, "relative_strength": -23.837619, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.272641, "energy": 77.537946, "activity_lines": [ 4.468265, 4.67894, 5.174297, 5.543297 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.86, "volume": 77092038, "typical_volume": 48319897.4, "trend": 5.942903, "fair_value": 5.324133, "relative_strength": -15.43203, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.610273, "energy": 57.102463, "activity_lines": [ 4.596506, 4.666811, 5.110883, 5.470572 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.89, "volume": 44130212, "typical_volume": 48166760.45, "trend": 5.890236, "fair_value": 5.320455, "relative_strength": -16.813663, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.048884, "energy": 44.176906, "activity_lines": [ 4.704667, 4.677228, 5.057897, 5.402643 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }