{ "ticker": { "uuid": "699b56ef-ecc8-479b-b649-c96b967be30d", "symbol": "VSMV", "name": "VICTORYSHARES US MULTI-FACTOR MINIMUM VOLATILITY ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 59.111, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.474, "architecture_energy": 46.459, "architecture_maturity": 12.215, "architecture_confidence": 75.508, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.07, "rotation_up": 57.56, "upward_expansion": 78.69, "deceleration": 58.01, "rotation_down": 20.4, "downward_expansion": 5.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 60.261326, 60.008331, 59.71093, 59.17321 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 60.7769, "trend_reference": 58.495513, "distance_from_trend": 0.039001, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 48.4749, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.253781, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.483367, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.05299, "excess_performance": -0.134463, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.039001, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031136, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.253781, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018995, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.054834, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01975, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.05299, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.87201, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23132, "relative_activity": 0.924736, "balance": 1.87201, "dry_up": 1.013754, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018241, "annualized_volatility": 0.085945, "from_high_reference": -0.013199, "from_low_reference": 0.228841 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 58.495513, "fair_value_reference": 48.4749, "structural_low": 55.486448, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": 0.015162, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.001853, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.054504, "worst_return": -0.06793, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.015374, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.005931, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.080423, "worst_return": -0.120207, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.067761, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.006607, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.16359, "worst_return": -0.098287, "sufficient": true }, { 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64.565054, "energy": 39.997046, "activity_lines": [ 59.771341, 59.75584, 59.278296, 58.771896 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 60.350749, "volume": 42483, "typical_volume": 25590.9, "trend": 58.201624, "fair_value": 48.201385, "relative_strength": -0.89358, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.924893, "energy": 45.774856, "activity_lines": [ 60.020375, 59.859758, 59.443776, 58.921116 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 59.685374, "volume": 19593, "typical_volume": 25120.65, "trend": 58.353193, "fair_value": 48.335793, "relative_strength": -2.508763, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.684826, "energy": 38.915812, "activity_lines": [ 59.97732, 59.827354, 59.532158, 59.016841 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 60.7769, "volume": 23132, "typical_volume": 25014.7, "trend": 58.495513, "fair_value": 48.4749, "relative_strength": -5.483367, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.474467, "energy": 46.458877, "activity_lines": [ 60.261326, 60.008331, 59.71093, 59.17321 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }