{ "ticker": { "uuid": "69a01598-ed16-4672-9d5e-9f3f52e7bb7c", "symbol": "601311", "name": "Camel Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.79, "architecture_energy": 40.491, "architecture_maturity": 70.758, "architecture_confidence": 89.087, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.29, "rotation_up": 27.44, "upward_expansion": 19.43, "deceleration": 45.81, "rotation_down": 33.88, "downward_expansion": 64.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.846, 7.761981, 8.212662, 8.584234 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 7.87, "trend_reference": 8.991867, "distance_from_trend": -0.124765, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.343165, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.056713, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.019465, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.170706, "excess_performance": -0.127502, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.124765, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059264, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.056713, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.228932, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.160195, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101249, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.170706, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.351864, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 67372087, "relative_activity": 0.648866, "balance": 0.351864, "dry_up": 0.676533, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06384, "annualized_volatility": 0.31921, "from_high_reference": -0.338099, "from_low_reference": 0.08899 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.991867, "fair_value_reference": 8.343165, "structural_low": 7.226879, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.001831, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.001211, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.287293, "worst_return": -0.260213, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.005826, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.046699, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.148248, "worst_return": -0.228343, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.036021, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.06845, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.173855, "worst_return": -0.235881, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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110305680.25, "trend": 9.076867, "fair_value": 8.350382, "relative_strength": -16.287051, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.1126, "energy": 58.006973, "activity_lines": [ 7.655125, 7.727472, 8.373005, 8.723722 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.08, "volume": 71670712, "typical_volume": 107379517.45, "trend": 9.0352, "fair_value": 8.346878, "relative_strength": -11.752438, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.527705, "energy": 47.342549, "activity_lines": [ 7.814, 7.753363, 8.298643, 8.659408 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.87, "volume": 67372087, "typical_volume": 103830488.5, "trend": 8.991867, "fair_value": 8.343165, "relative_strength": -16.019465, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.790026, "energy": 40.49117, "activity_lines": [ 7.846, 7.761981, 8.212662, 8.584234 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }