{ "ticker": { "uuid": "69a31a8b-aae2-4ac0-8281-56e2ab9bd593", "symbol": "SHL", "name": "Sonic Healthcare Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 46.866, "architecture_energy": 58.804, "architecture_maturity": 11.06, "architecture_confidence": 61.649, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.86, "rotation_up": 72.05, "upward_expansion": 60.81, "deceleration": 23.45, "rotation_down": 17.12, "downward_expansion": 19.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.823333, 21.407636, 20.684809, 20.674235 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 22.25, "trend_reference": 20.926503, "distance_from_trend": 0.063245, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.473521, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.090854, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.382129, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.030053, "excess_performance": -0.033653, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.063245, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017125, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.090854, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.162221, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.013821, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.155131, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.030053, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.781599, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8252454, "relative_activity": 1.231815, "balance": 0.781599, "dry_up": 1.27527, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043907, "annualized_volatility": 0.267891, "from_high_reference": -0.203153, "from_low_reference": 0.21851 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.926503, "fair_value_reference": 24.473521, "structural_low": 18.26, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.003787, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.024294, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.036718, "worst_return": -0.070228, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.07311, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.111059, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.055946, "worst_return": -0.193753, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.134968, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.15172, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.014551, "worst_return": -0.164359, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"close": 21.219999, "volume": 8400327, "typical_volume": 6809861.85, "trend": 20.922384, "fair_value": 24.579232, "relative_strength": -1.593786, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.057113, "energy": 48.119372, "activity_lines": [ 21.350666, 20.856363, 20.334333, 20.527762 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.860001, "volume": 9214825, "typical_volume": 6906490.35, "trend": 20.917289, "fair_value": 24.52524, "relative_strength": -0.484502, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.258278, "energy": 53.641028, "activity_lines": [ 21.57, 21.125454, 20.492571, 20.588254 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.25, "volume": 8252454, "typical_volume": 6699427.0, "trend": 20.926503, "fair_value": 24.473521, "relative_strength": -1.382129, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 46.866277, "energy": 58.804353, "activity_lines": [ 21.823333, 21.407636, 20.684809, 20.674235 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }