{ "ticker": { "uuid": "69b0f50b-14de-40e9-8b82-ece4e2253c0d", "symbol": "000736", "name": "CCCG Urban Development Holding Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.628, "architecture_energy": 35.791, "architecture_maturity": 74.351, "architecture_confidence": 91.373, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.32, "rotation_up": 26.71, "upward_expansion": 17.58, "deceleration": 46.96, "rotation_down": 38.62, "downward_expansion": 67.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.181333, 4.091818, 4.449048, 4.667161 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.36, "trend_reference": 4.956, "distance_from_trend": -0.120258, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.675641, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.431969, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.531607, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.235088, "excess_performance": -0.242487, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.120258, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098034, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.431969, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101736, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.175316, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076302, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.235088, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.416314, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 62443681, "relative_activity": 1.587537, "balance": 0.416314, "dry_up": 1.600926, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101623, "annualized_volatility": 0.42059, "from_high_reference": -0.39021, "from_low_reference": 0.191257 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.956, "fair_value_reference": 7.675641, "structural_low": 3.66, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.030612, "positive_rate": 0.551724, "directional_follow_through": 0.448276, "median_excess_return": 0.008068, "regime_survival": 0.758621, "best_return": 0.77807, "worst_return": -0.197697, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.002569, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.010103, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.559251, "worst_return": -0.364845, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.087264, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.081529, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.431298, "worst_return": -0.283604, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.164366, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.311669, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027837, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.054435, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.039216, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-20", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 3.83, "volume": 44747799, "typical_volume": 34744996.9, "trend": 5.023333, "fair_value": 7.798269, "relative_strength": -25.614402, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.003061, "energy": 63.924244, "activity_lines": [ 3.893333, 4.054727, 4.524095, 4.748645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.39, "volume": 87328158, "typical_volume": 37697398.05, "trend": 4.989667, "fair_value": 7.740577, "relative_strength": -13.084897, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.590162, "energy": 47.183513, "activity_lines": [ 4.066, 4.066, 4.485667, 4.707785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.36, "volume": 62443681, "typical_volume": 39333696.75, "trend": 4.956, "fair_value": 7.675641, "relative_strength": -17.531607, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.627554, "energy": 35.79128, "activity_lines": [ 4.181333, 4.091818, 4.449048, 4.667161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }