{ "ticker": { "uuid": "69b23a96-c1f9-4df6-a8a9-e885762abd4c", "symbol": "KINV-B", "name": "Kinnevik AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 87.371, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -24.737, "architecture_energy": 18.022, "architecture_maturity": 37.612, "architecture_confidence": 62.671, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.45, "rotation_up": 23.99, "upward_expansion": 14.78, "deceleration": 63.1, "rotation_down": 40.17, "downward_expansion": 64.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.865333, 52.698727, 53.354095, 54.112645 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 56.419998, "trend_reference": 57.298, "distance_from_trend": -0.015323, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 85.103974, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.337046, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -28.139394, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.154377, "excess_performance": -0.215871, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.015323, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.147102, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.337046, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098497, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.281394, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.106303, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.154377, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.710598, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4958326, "relative_activity": 0.935666, "balance": 0.710598, "dry_up": 0.848823, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070065, "annualized_volatility": 0.391654, "from_high_reference": -0.381766, "from_low_reference": 0.206071 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 57.298, "fair_value_reference": 85.103974, "structural_low": 46.779999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.046155, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": -0.037769, "regime_survival": 0.852941, "best_return": 0.205396, "worst_return": -0.269296, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.100299, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.113897, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.232921, "worst_return": -0.317007, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.209607, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.235722, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.197558, "worst_return": -0.476221, 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-36.532663, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.80366, "energy": 45.852232, "activity_lines": [ 52.428001, 53.976364, 53.728905, 56.054387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 49.43, "volume": 5341457, "typical_volume": 6827329.65, "trend": 60.225333, "fair_value": 86.692179, "relative_strength": -36.555324, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.330702, "energy": 63.057767, "activity_lines": [ 51.107334, 53.081455, 53.294286, 55.289462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 50.400002, "volume": 4265843, "typical_volume": 6715040.0, "trend": 59.169333, "fair_value": 86.084487, "relative_strength": -35.400711, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.686279, "energy": 60.412785, "activity_lines": [ 50.696001, 52.41691, 53.020667, 54.65557 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.52, "volume": 3426849, "typical_volume": 5679589.2, "trend": 58.186, "fair_value": 85.554166, "relative_strength": -32.714052, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.431822, "energy": 45.499633, "activity_lines": [ 51.187334, 52.164001, 53.003048, 54.226581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 56.419998, "volume": 4958326, "typical_volume": 5299245.25, "trend": 57.298, "fair_value": 85.103974, "relative_strength": -28.139394, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.737485, "energy": 18.022263, "activity_lines": [ 52.865333, 52.698727, 53.354095, 54.112645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }