{ "ticker": { "uuid": "69b8104e-9d0f-4bf5-b9a1-7667e4c60aa0", "symbol": "688309", "name": "Niutech Environment Technology Corporation", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 40.653, "architecture_energy": 20.224, "architecture_maturity": 44.106, "architecture_confidence": 61.81, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.78, "rotation_up": 40.54, "upward_expansion": 59.4, "deceleration": 63.92, "rotation_down": 17.71, "downward_expansion": 11.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 66.007334, 64.612875, 66.199958, 63.725022 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 70.040001, "trend_reference": 57.113914, "distance_from_trend": 0.226321, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.130809, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.787017, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 63.370198, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 1.216456, "excess_performance": 1.25966, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.226321, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.294934, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.787017, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.937975, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.633702, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.732204, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.216456, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.522529, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10352391, "relative_activity": 0.998487, "balance": 0.522529, "dry_up": 1.072145, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.156817, "annualized_volatility": 0.657311, "from_high_reference": -0.20735, "from_low_reference": 2.214318 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 57.113914, "fair_value_reference": 25.130809, "structural_low": 29.379999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.087964, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.069294, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.477524, "worst_return": -0.085765, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.139921, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.167002, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 1.884785, "worst_return": -0.086133, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.472997, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.429343, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.965745, "worst_return": -0.021363, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.197629, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.097622, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.155709, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.46102, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.085431, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": 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"relative_strength": 63.607435, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.773769, "energy": 15.965814, "activity_lines": [ 63.720666, 63.533958, 65.932218, 62.153785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 64.120003, "volume": 9707529, "typical_volume": 10727637.9, "trend": 55.58358, "fair_value": 24.81602, "relative_strength": 56.949452, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.031555, "energy": 13.859661, "activity_lines": [ 64.114667, 63.418859, 65.806945, 62.79235 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 70.040001, "volume": 10352391, "typical_volume": 10368081.25, "trend": 57.113914, "fair_value": 25.130809, "relative_strength": 63.370198, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.652963, "energy": 20.224003, "activity_lines": [ 66.007334, 64.612875, 66.199958, 63.725022 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }