{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "69bcdfcd-8bf7-4c6d-876c-1fd8cbbb34f1",
    "symbol": "PADV",
    "name": "State Street SPDR S&P Pan Asia Dividend Aristocrats UCITS ETF",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 86.204,
    "architecture_energy": 90.828,
    "architecture_maturity": 15.332,
    "architecture_confidence": 62.252,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 5.06,
        "rotation_up": 84.01,
        "upward_expansion": 96.29,
        "deceleration": 41.85,
        "rotation_down": 8.39,
        "downward_expansion": 20.62
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        49.445749,
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        48.481285,
        48.252435
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      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 50.0,
    "trend_reference": 48.000709,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.041651,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 41.887097,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.193685,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -8.805321,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.042535,
    "excess_performance": -0.128356,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.041651,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.016925,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.193685,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.021685,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.088053,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.007776,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.042535,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 3.020516,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 4750,
      "relative_activity": 1.364923,
      "balance": 3.020516,
      "dry_up": 1.085257,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.012179,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.085103,
      "from_high_reference": -0.003623,
      "from_low_reference": 0.137816
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    "levels": {
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      "fair_value_reference": 41.887097,
      "structural_low": 45.669998,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 32,
        "median_return": 0.002518,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.007717,
        "regime_survival": 0.65625,
        "best_return": 0.091517,
        "worst_return": -0.081322,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": 0.018756,
        "positive_rate": 0.583333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.583333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.032887,
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        "best_return": 0.052243,
        "worst_return": -0.051895,
        "sufficient": true
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        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 7,
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        "positive_rate": 0.714286,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.714286,
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        "worst_return": -0.085089,
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        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "worst_return": -0.009004,
        "sufficient": false
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
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        "end": "2025-05-09",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "balance",
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        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "energy": 51.719368,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "trend": 47.474332,
        "fair_value": 41.473989,
        "relative_strength": -12.173893,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "relative_strength": -10.844536,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 58.865013,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 48.546383,
        "volume": 3615,
        "typical_volume": 4162.7,
        "trend": 47.655554,
        "fair_value": 41.631335,
        "relative_strength": -9.017481,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.554017,
        "energy": 53.354932,
        "activity_lines": [
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          47.981278,
          47.893165
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 49.376366,
        "volume": 4975,
        "typical_volume": 4063.45,
        "trend": 47.776366,
        "fair_value": 41.704893,
        "relative_strength": -7.114571,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 84.360931,
        "energy": 73.339897,
        "activity_lines": [
          48.690991,
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          48.133395,
          48.004185
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 49.523697,
        "volume": 1767,
        "typical_volume": 3524.6,
        "trend": 47.899454,
        "fair_value": 41.79227,
        "relative_strength": -7.249554,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 82.40088,
        "energy": 82.050029,
        "activity_lines": [
          49.031276,
          48.669885,
          48.290251,
          48.116916
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 50.0,
        "volume": 4750,
        "typical_volume": 3480.05,
        "trend": 48.000709,
        "fair_value": 41.887097,
        "relative_strength": -8.805321,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 86.203725,
        "energy": 90.827649,
        "activity_lines": [
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          48.481285,
          48.252435
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}