{ "ticker": { "uuid": "69bed441-ae73-4046-aab6-fae57cc003d5", "symbol": "MAJOR", "name": "Major Cineplex Group Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -15.923, "architecture_energy": 9.823, "architecture_maturity": 36.937, "architecture_confidence": 72.039, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 67.41, "rotation_up": 30.74, "upward_expansion": 20.71, "deceleration": 35.57, "rotation_down": 25.75, "downward_expansion": 54.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.986667, 6.928182, 6.940186, 7.009963 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 7.2, "trend_reference": 7.035156, "distance_from_trend": 0.023431, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.736808, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.32941, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.731088, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.06939, "excess_performance": -0.122935, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.023431, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009839, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.32941, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059747, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.127311, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086401, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.06939, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.924798, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10150000, "relative_activity": 1.386795, "balance": 2.924798, "dry_up": 1.129097, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059295, "annualized_volatility": 0.339787, "from_high_reference": -0.155425, "from_low_reference": 0.189161 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.035156, "fair_value_reference": 10.736808, "structural_low": 6.45, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.010473, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.011499, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.096256, "worst_return": -0.125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.041987, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.034076, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.105882, "worst_return": -0.128205, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.017405, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.007647, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.058804, "worst_return": -0.187768, "sufficient": true }, { 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6.881818, 7.021577, 7.04246 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 6.75, "volume": 4636700, "typical_volume": 8873090.0, "trend": 7.006198, "fair_value": 10.90858, "relative_strength": -21.733911, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.477982, "energy": 12.332384, "activity_lines": [ 6.86, 6.858182, 6.983318, 7.025968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.9, "volume": 4809000, "typical_volume": 8350585.0, "trend": 7.015, "fair_value": 10.867209, "relative_strength": -20.010872, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.021801, "energy": 6.763382, "activity_lines": [ 6.876667, 6.860909, 6.96157, 7.019116 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.55, "volume": 8871400, "typical_volume": 8221490.0, "trend": 7.008906, "fair_value": 10.823012, "relative_strength": -23.371336, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.906154, "energy": 38.397711, "activity_lines": [ 6.766667, 6.8, 6.910536, 6.989116 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.15, "volume": 9225200, "typical_volume": 7923505.0, "trend": 7.017969, "fair_value": 10.780332, "relative_strength": -14.637554, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.272949, "energy": 15.079847, "activity_lines": [ 6.873333, 6.863636, 6.922359, 6.998219 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.2, "volume": 10150000, "typical_volume": 7319035.0, "trend": 7.035156, "fair_value": 10.736808, "relative_strength": -12.731088, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.922503, "energy": 9.822588, "activity_lines": [ 6.986667, 6.928182, 6.940186, 7.009963 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }