{ "ticker": { "uuid": "69c28df3-adac-474d-8441-af814b8400b1", "symbol": "LSX", "name": "Lion Selection Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.745, "architecture_energy": 23.335, "architecture_maturity": 55.573, "architecture_confidence": 84.56, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.65, "rotation_up": 24.45, "upward_expansion": 13.71, "deceleration": 44.38, "rotation_down": 38.98, "downward_expansion": 66.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.852667, 0.850455, 0.860262, 0.879849 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.85, "trend_reference": 0.913917, "distance_from_trend": -0.069937, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.652663, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.302358, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.933081, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.119171, "excess_performance": -0.182877, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.069937, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032124, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.302358, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101387, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.119331, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068295, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.119171, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.043059, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 654414, "relative_activity": 1.881442, "balance": 4.043059, "dry_up": 0.883861, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058824, "annualized_volatility": 0.240617, "from_high_reference": -0.241071, "from_low_reference": 0.130023 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.913917, "fair_value_reference": 0.652663, "structural_low": 0.785, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.000186, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.01402, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.056819, "worst_return": -0.04023, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.02286, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.000333, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.072329, "worst_return": -0.011364, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.10543, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.045659, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.150716, "worst_return": 0.060144, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"close": 0.85, "volume": 130835, "typical_volume": 385788.0, "trend": 0.92425, "fair_value": 0.647051, "relative_strength": -6.872272, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.174185, "energy": 26.408166, "activity_lines": [ 0.853, 0.851636, 0.865429, 0.889129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.85, "volume": 264261, "typical_volume": 379482.55, "trend": 0.919583, "fair_value": 0.649872, "relative_strength": -9.059408, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.317219, "energy": 23.590684, "activity_lines": [ 0.853667, 0.850818, 0.86256, 0.884339 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.85, "volume": 654414, "typical_volume": 347825.8, "trend": 0.913917, "fair_value": 0.652663, "relative_strength": -11.933081, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.745232, "energy": 23.334677, "activity_lines": [ 0.852667, 0.850455, 0.860262, 0.879849 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }