{ "ticker": { "uuid": "69c30af7-1534-451b-b3a2-2e22578147da", "symbol": "USL", "name": "Unico Silver Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 12.415, "architecture_energy": 23.474, "architecture_maturity": 12.785, "architecture_confidence": 50.413, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.72, "rotation_up": 40.77, "upward_expansion": 35.37, "deceleration": 32.1, "rotation_down": 18.0, "downward_expansion": 46.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.709, 0.672, 0.655476, 0.669978 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.795, "trend_reference": 0.716333, "distance_from_trend": 0.109819, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.346705, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.293015, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 12.114198, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.096552, "excess_performance": 0.032846, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.109819, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034591, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.293015, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121692, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.121142, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121184, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.096552, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.434339, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13654820, "relative_activity": 1.010328, "balance": 1.434339, "dry_up": 0.788134, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119013, "annualized_volatility": 0.813522, "from_high_reference": -0.321962, "from_low_reference": 1.338235 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.716333, "fair_value_reference": 0.346705, "structural_low": 0.545, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.05719, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.061326, "regime_survival": 0.35, "best_return": 0.216216, "worst_return": -0.291667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.142424, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.117376, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.930233, "worst_return": -0.4375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.151654, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.184519, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.930233, "worst_return": -0.551724, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.225568, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.089161, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.372093, "worst_return": -0.617647, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.131579, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.073171, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.255814, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.234043, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.092593, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02963, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.03125, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.242038, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.103175, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041096, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024194, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047619, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.143885, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.11, "volume": 220006, "typical_volume": 1312295.6, "trend": 0.132167, "fair_value": 0.258381, "relative_strength": -22.16534, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", 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"down", "direction": -52.971881, "energy": 39.704894, "activity_lines": [ 0.608333, 0.621091, 0.640429, 0.684774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.68, "volume": 13377352, "typical_volume": 15917243.75, "trend": 0.741, "fair_value": 0.331929, "relative_strength": 3.934162, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.495064, "energy": 22.896641, "activity_lines": [ 0.630667, 0.629727, 0.640833, 0.680581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.61, "volume": 8846784, "typical_volume": 15271988.2, "trend": 0.735, "fair_value": 0.335038, "relative_strength": -7.111861, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.031829, "energy": 22.571776, "activity_lines": [ 0.626667, 0.623545, 0.635071, 0.672129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.66, "volume": 9638052, "typical_volume": 14862902.05, "trend": 0.727, "fair_value": 0.338596, "relative_strength": 0.194592, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.54554, "energy": 16.155138, "activity_lines": [ 0.640667, 0.628636, 0.635595, 0.66729 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.695, "volume": 10467627, "typical_volume": 14394047.35, "trend": 0.721333, "fair_value": 0.342346, "relative_strength": 2.136153, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.053653, "energy": 10.097468, "activity_lines": [ 0.662333, 0.641909, 0.6405, 0.665226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.795, "volume": 13654820, "typical_volume": 13515239.5, "trend": 0.716333, "fair_value": 0.346705, "relative_strength": 12.114198, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 12.415069, "energy": 23.474316, "activity_lines": [ 0.709, 0.672, 0.655476, 0.669978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }