{ "ticker": { "uuid": "69ca81fa-e296-4045-ae96-019ba5befd72", "symbol": "FNOVA-B", "name": "Fortinova Fastigheter AB (Publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.544, "architecture_energy": 39.336, "architecture_maturity": 50.737, "architecture_confidence": 82.174, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.67, "rotation_up": 25.17, "upward_expansion": 5.67, "deceleration": 56.65, "rotation_down": 41.89, "downward_expansion": 74.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.166667, 24.223637, 24.627619, 25.061505 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 24.200001, "trend_reference": 25.79, "distance_from_trend": -0.061652, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.037179, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.07056, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.898168, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.135714, "excess_performance": -0.197209, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.061652, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027282, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.07056, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05543, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.168982, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033886, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.135714, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.26588, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43432, "relative_activity": 0.287182, "balance": 1.26588, "dry_up": 0.21571, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035601, "annualized_volatility": 0.208807, "from_high_reference": -0.176871, "from_low_reference": 0.029787 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.79, "fair_value_reference": 26.037179, "structural_low": 23.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.015375, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.590909, "median_excess_return": -0.015844, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.185751, "worst_return": -0.266234, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.034483, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.076646, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.265823, "worst_return": -0.319648, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.026316, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.107808, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.265823, "worst_return": -0.42, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014925, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.10219, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016461, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.093878, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.08046, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"volume": 57454, "typical_volume": 155027.35, "trend": 26.166666, "fair_value": 25.960897, "relative_strength": -13.702791, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.409676, "energy": 62.00344, "activity_lines": [ 24.186666, 24.485454, 24.908571, 25.427742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.200001, "volume": 13455, "typical_volume": 153477.75, "trend": 26.086666, "fair_value": 25.987179, "relative_strength": -15.011252, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.257228, "energy": 43.642149, "activity_lines": [ 24.186667, 24.389091, 24.80619, 25.30086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.1, "volume": 16151, "typical_volume": 152496.85, "trend": 25.923333, "fair_value": 26.013461, "relative_strength": -16.087652, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.315302, "energy": 42.534777, "activity_lines": [ 24.166667, 24.289091, 24.705238, 25.172688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.200001, "volume": 43432, "typical_volume": 151235.15, "trend": 25.79, "fair_value": 26.037179, "relative_strength": -16.898168, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.543941, "energy": 39.33566, "activity_lines": [ 24.166667, 24.223637, 24.627619, 25.061505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }