{ "ticker": { "uuid": "69d07ea3-3509-4a5e-b2ef-1f4092ac9a21", "symbol": "DBL", "name": "DoubleLine Opportunistic Credit Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 66.01, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.489, "architecture_energy": 51.569, "architecture_maturity": 6.541, "architecture_confidence": 90.866, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.92, "rotation_up": 11.7, "upward_expansion": 10.17, "deceleration": 39.24, "rotation_down": 62.6, "downward_expansion": 83.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.085969, 14.126688, 14.169288, 14.189453 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.16, "trend_reference": 14.256489, "distance_from_trend": -0.006768, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.463618, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.051723, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.32086, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.030088, "excess_performance": -0.155713, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.006768, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008967, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.051723, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033123, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.123209, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009887, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.030088, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.483032, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 234160, "relative_activity": 0.695354, "balance": 0.483032, "dry_up": 0.851097, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.012911, "annualized_volatility": 0.06839, "from_high_reference": -0.048458, "from_low_reference": 0.029309 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.256489, "fair_value_reference": 13.463618, "structural_low": 13.756805, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.000985, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.01378, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.043341, "worst_return": -0.06175, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.012586, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.024255, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.051414, "worst_return": -0.119474, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.068268, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.019085, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.00598, "worst_return": -0.130556, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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14.347111, "fair_value": 13.35264, "relative_strength": -8.403981, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.522974, "energy": 9.198314, "activity_lines": [ 14.247577, 14.245781, 14.218393, 14.268365 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 14.219305, "volume": 445548, "typical_volume": 362996.6, "trend": 14.336032, "fair_value": 13.371072, "relative_strength": -10.17357, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.155947, "energy": 13.636702, "activity_lines": [ 14.235374, 14.242814, 14.216776, 14.260119 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.189537, "volume": 286619, "typical_volume": 368249.55, "trend": 14.324594, "fair_value": 13.390464, "relative_strength": -11.251564, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.253388, "energy": 15.96278, "activity_lines": [ 14.218674, 14.231428, 14.213949, 14.250668 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.98, "volume": 287637, "typical_volume": 368113.95, "trend": 14.303945, "fair_value": 13.408663, "relative_strength": -10.892674, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.49993, "energy": 44.904253, "activity_lines": [ 14.136891, 14.183955, 14.192934, 14.228436 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.06, "volume": 367971, "typical_volume": 361155.55, "trend": 14.288512, "fair_value": 13.427274, "relative_strength": -9.595364, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.456944, "energy": 51.205432, "activity_lines": [ 14.097758, 14.157565, 14.181981, 14.212698 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.04, "volume": 256657, "typical_volume": 346972.55, "trend": 14.271776, "fair_value": 13.445708, "relative_strength": -10.360762, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.5329, "energy": 58.666363, "activity_lines": [ 14.065225, 14.12975, 14.169581, 14.196665 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.16, "volume": 234160, "typical_volume": 336749.1, "trend": 14.256489, "fair_value": 13.463618, "relative_strength": -12.32086, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.48898, "energy": 51.568962, "activity_lines": [ 14.085969, 14.126688, 14.169288, 14.189453 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }