{ "ticker": { "uuid": "69d22c82-3c60-4a03-baf4-31319ded4610", "symbol": "COLLAX", "name": "Collaxio AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.294, "architecture_energy": 56.911, "architecture_maturity": 89.108, "architecture_confidence": 85.632, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.64, "rotation_up": 12.79, "upward_expansion": 10.11, "deceleration": 42.07, "rotation_down": 68.73, "downward_expansion": 85.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.4614, 0.480273, 0.50351, 0.52186 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.449, "trend_reference": 0.553533, "distance_from_trend": -0.188847, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.057165, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.575279, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.837613, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.251667, "excess_performance": -0.313161, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.188847, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.153964, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.575279, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043925, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.448376, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030062, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.251667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.580682, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 212542, "relative_activity": 1.279646, "balance": 0.580682, "dry_up": 1.108559, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.136371, "annualized_volatility": 0.498861, "from_high_reference": -0.616239, "from_low_reference": 0.119701 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.553533, "fair_value_reference": 1.057165, "structural_low": 0.401, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.037616, "positive_rate": 0.269231, "directional_follow_through": 0.653846, "median_excess_return": -0.04593, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.301038, "worst_return": -0.222222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.054577, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.070135, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.071428, "worst_return": -0.324444, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.134948, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.208637, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.131349, "worst_return": -0.366667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"activity_lines": [ 0.509533, 0.521709, 0.529857, 0.549815 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.499, "volume": 51436, "typical_volume": 156744.55, "trend": 0.574667, "fair_value": 1.084225, "relative_strength": -39.848559, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.793804, "energy": 49.433535, "activity_lines": [ 0.503533, 0.515909, 0.525929, 0.544437 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.425, "volume": 340317, "typical_volume": 164622.4, "trend": 0.5655, "fair_value": 1.075061, "relative_strength": -48.311962, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.558953, "energy": 70.594789, "activity_lines": [ 0.475467, 0.497582, 0.515471, 0.534781 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.476, "volume": 132207, "typical_volume": 157932.55, "trend": 0.559767, "fair_value": 1.066128, "relative_strength": -41.609963, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.047722, "energy": 55.600817, "activity_lines": [ 0.471667, 0.490909, 0.510629, 0.529006 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.449, "volume": 212542, "typical_volume": 166094.4, "trend": 0.553533, "fair_value": 1.057165, "relative_strength": -44.837613, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.294428, "energy": 56.911005, "activity_lines": [ 0.4614, 0.480273, 0.50351, 0.52186 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }