{ "ticker": { "uuid": "69d3c038-32a1-4591-9c01-a7b6471c924d", "symbol": "300380", "name": "Shanghai Amarsoft Information & Technology Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.328, "architecture_energy": 47.81, "architecture_maturity": 98.291, "architecture_confidence": 92.292, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.19, "rotation_up": 23.19, "upward_expansion": 6.89, "deceleration": 57.07, "rotation_down": 51.5, "downward_expansion": 77.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.038, 29.299454, 30.972469, 32.530679 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 30.299999, "trend_reference": 35.078558, "distance_from_trend": -0.136224, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 34.911608, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.132094, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.220554, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.250927, "excess_performance": -0.258327, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.136224, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107709, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.132094, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.23715, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.272206, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044687, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.250927, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.28639, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16068964, "relative_activity": 1.284963, "balance": 0.28639, "dry_up": 1.188801, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091275, "annualized_volatility": 0.376742, "from_high_reference": -0.505145, "from_low_reference": 0.165833 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.078558, "fair_value_reference": 34.911608, "structural_low": 25.99, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.013723, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.023124, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.140573, "worst_return": -0.134396, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.024277, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.011215, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.283894, "worst_return": -0.195909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.063799, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.122609, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.284347, "worst_return": -0.261561, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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34.462393 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.530001, "volume": 12699097, "typical_volume": 11986576.45, "trend": 36.337224, "fair_value": 34.696987, "relative_strength": -33.952158, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.869004, "energy": 59.456706, "activity_lines": [ 29.16, 30.142283, 32.131184, 33.864981 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.27, "volume": 13819802, "typical_volume": 11927294.35, "trend": 35.816891, "fair_value": 34.750707, "relative_strength": -36.269899, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.786106, "energy": 71.071856, "activity_lines": [ 28.019333, 29.221774, 31.439628, 33.215482 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.35, "volume": 16877818, "typical_volume": 12301938.05, "trend": 35.447558, "fair_value": 34.828725, "relative_strength": -24.266057, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.164999, "energy": 58.328945, "activity_lines": [ 28.516, 29.221481, 31.19312, 32.86278 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.299999, "volume": 16068964, "typical_volume": 12505389.5, "trend": 35.078558, "fair_value": 34.911608, "relative_strength": -27.220554, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.328124, "energy": 47.81027, "activity_lines": [ 29.038, 29.299454, 30.972469, 32.530679 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }