{ "ticker": { "uuid": "69da8155-5c12-4aaa-9beb-40f421576174", "symbol": "TANH", "name": "Tantech Holdings Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.593, "architecture_energy": 23.73, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 63.903, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.63, "rotation_up": 23.18, "upward_expansion": 8.75, "deceleration": 65.35, "rotation_down": 38.64, "downward_expansion": 67.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.42556, 0.428135, 0.421753, 0.475345 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.4228, "trend_reference": 0.581, "distance_from_trend": -0.272289, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.752451, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.974762, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -62.788468, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.538176, "excess_performance": -0.725629, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.272289, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.26769, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.974762, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011323, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.627885, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.160572, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.538176, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.682253, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1058773, "relative_activity": 0.493777, "balance": 0.682253, "dry_up": 0.765005, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.251764, "annualized_volatility": 0.970637, "from_high_reference": -0.836757, "from_low_reference": 0.401392 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.581, "fair_value_reference": 16.752451, "structural_low": 0.3017, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 56, "median_return": -0.081698, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.078815, "regime_survival": 0.892857, "best_return": 0.497449, "worst_return": -0.799546, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.32292, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.324719, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.296482, "worst_return": -0.89119, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.612432, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.667198, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": -0.068132, "worst_return": -0.937238, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2026-07-10", "close": 0.455, "volume": 3057409, "typical_volume": 1867453.95, "trend": 0.661713, "fair_value": 19.353742, "relative_strength": -64.909064, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.050156, "energy": 31.833775, "activity_lines": [ 0.433327, 0.431575, 0.440674, 0.528532 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.434, "volume": 3235345, "typical_volume": 2023629.85, "trend": 0.64018, "fair_value": 18.715858, "relative_strength": -64.022921, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.951864, "energy": 33.994105, "activity_lines": [ 0.43092, 0.433758, 0.434107, 0.513841 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.4208, "volume": 1243215, "typical_volume": 2081715.75, "trend": 0.620207, "fair_value": 18.005735, "relative_strength": -63.331831, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.426269, "energy": 27.711228, "activity_lines": [ 0.427227, 0.432105, 0.428135, 0.499688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.421, "volume": 1024069, "typical_volume": 2115097.05, "trend": 0.600907, "fair_value": 17.357151, "relative_strength": -62.250288, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.21286, "energy": 24.869296, "activity_lines": [ 0.426613, 0.429965, 0.42393, 0.486835 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.4228, "volume": 1058773, "typical_volume": 2144234.3, "trend": 0.581, "fair_value": 16.752451, "relative_strength": -62.788468, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.592572, "energy": 23.730025, "activity_lines": [ 0.42556, 0.428135, 0.421753, 0.475345 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }