{ "ticker": { "uuid": "69dfd91b-fc1d-4c9b-8b7c-12a58ca2e1ff", "symbol": "PICB", "name": "INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR II INTL CORP BD ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 57.161, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.252, "architecture_energy": 21.728, "architecture_maturity": 22.239, "architecture_confidence": 65.812, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.16, "rotation_up": 22.43, "upward_expansion": 15.44, "deceleration": 58.02, "rotation_down": 40.78, "downward_expansion": 63.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.085921, 23.076598, 23.174499, 23.239753 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 23.3, "trend_reference": 23.372587, "distance_from_trend": -0.003106, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.858344, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.065954, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.124249, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.025694, "excess_performance": -0.151319, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003106, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002979, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.065954, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029386, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.111242, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012563, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.025694, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.804021, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 351963, "relative_activity": 0.82485, "balance": 0.804021, "dry_up": 1.004133, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014647, "annualized_volatility": 0.090137, "from_high_reference": -0.041165, "from_low_reference": 0.029821 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.372587, "fair_value_reference": 21.858344, 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23.419325, "fair_value": 21.800361, "relative_strength": -9.573673, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.994648, "energy": 50.861757, "activity_lines": [ 23.050365, 23.128235, 23.218322, 23.305468 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.8, "volume": 378741, "typical_volume": 424695.6, "trend": 23.391129, "fair_value": 21.817241, "relative_strength": -9.657756, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.947718, "energy": 56.138832, "activity_lines": [ 22.967263, 23.060087, 23.177388, 23.265511 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.07, "volume": 688631, "typical_volume": 429967.45, "trend": 23.37813, "fair_value": 21.836614, "relative_strength": -9.24877, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.944663, "energy": 41.554042, "activity_lines": [ 22.990491, 23.045148, 23.165408, 23.244793 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.3, "volume": 351963, "typical_volume": 426699.5, "trend": 23.372587, "fair_value": 21.858344, "relative_strength": -11.124249, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.252244, "energy": 21.728068, "activity_lines": [ 23.085921, 23.076598, 23.174499, 23.239753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }