{ "ticker": { "uuid": "69e8e90e-2e90-41aa-a98b-a6f3ae5a3ca4", "symbol": "STLR", "name": "STLLR Gold Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 88.887, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.757, "architecture_energy": 30.506, "architecture_maturity": 23.053, "architecture_confidence": 92.962, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.94, "rotation_up": 23.83, "upward_expansion": 5.58, "deceleration": 46.58, "rotation_down": 47.71, "downward_expansion": 76.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.368667, 1.374909, 1.410476, 1.462065 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.49, "trend_reference": 1.527, "distance_from_trend": -0.024231, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.307564, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.139523, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.462471, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.034722, "excess_performance": -0.085699, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.024231, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035985, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.139523, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002348, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094625, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163387, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.034722, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.736895, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1011500, "relative_activity": 1.950425, "balance": 0.736895, "dry_up": 1.230464, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105318, "annualized_volatility": 0.726453, "from_high_reference": -0.343612, "from_low_reference": 0.8625 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.527, "fair_value_reference": 1.307564, "structural_low": 1.24, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.021406, "positive_rate": 0.342105, "directional_follow_through": 0.605263, "median_excess_return": -0.025798, "regime_survival": 0.815789, "best_return": 0.419753, "worst_return": -0.168831, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.016529, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.026748, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.732558, "worst_return": -0.354839, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.091398, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.171486, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.848837, "worst_return": -0.375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.172043, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.089744, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.341176, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.20339, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", 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"close": 1.34, "volume": 539100, "typical_volume": 576820.0, "trend": 1.541, "fair_value": 1.319615, "relative_strength": -15.651172, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.717339, "energy": 34.540992, "activity_lines": [ 1.352, 1.368182, 1.423571, 1.48086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.29, "volume": 430000, "typical_volume": 551615.0, "trend": 1.530333, "fair_value": 1.312756, "relative_strength": -18.70012, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.681823, "energy": 54.620334, "activity_lines": [ 1.324, 1.352, 1.406429, 1.464667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.49, "volume": 1011500, "typical_volume": 518605.0, "trend": 1.527, "fair_value": 1.307564, "relative_strength": -9.462471, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.757365, "energy": 30.505792, "activity_lines": [ 1.368667, 1.374909, 1.410476, 1.462065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }