{ "ticker": { "uuid": "69edab5f-7a45-4409-b8e7-bd022cd8d029", "symbol": "TLCO", "name": "iShrs MSCI GTS UCITS ETF US A", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 86.646, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.69, "architecture_energy": 35.185, "architecture_maturity": 39.853, "architecture_confidence": 55.639, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.54, "rotation_up": 22.63, "upward_expansion": 16.56, "deceleration": 66.3, "rotation_down": 40.95, "downward_expansion": 64.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.882267, 6.873236, 7.00591, 7.073929 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.03, "trend_reference": 7.100967, "distance_from_trend": -0.009994, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.52388, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.07758, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.251642, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.014854, "excess_performance": -0.097738, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.009994, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014849, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.07758, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05311, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.092516, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11886, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.014854, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.340205, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 141294, "relative_activity": 5.041092, "balance": 3.340205, "dry_up": 2.428729, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025714, "annualized_volatility": 0.150969, "from_high_reference": -0.067021, "from_low_reference": 0.095186 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.100967, "fair_value_reference": 6.52388, "structural_low": 6.635, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.039172, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.017408, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.039172, "worst_return": 0.039172, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004743, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013337, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017349, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.079613, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-10", 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7.076667, 7.112409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.803, "volume": 42680, "typical_volume": 17204.85, "trend": 7.079733, "fair_value": 6.515827, "relative_strength": -11.401988, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.206742, "energy": 70.57423, "activity_lines": [ 6.792933, 6.896382, 7.043114, 7.095151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.807, "volume": 76030, "typical_volume": 20963.75, "trend": 7.0862, "fair_value": 6.518768, "relative_strength": -11.201488, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.090285, "energy": 63.384419, "activity_lines": [ 6.797267, 6.8592, 7.012867, 7.077555 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.03, "volume": 141294, "typical_volume": 28028.45, "trend": 7.100967, "fair_value": 6.52388, "relative_strength": -9.251642, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.689511, "energy": 35.184722, "activity_lines": [ 6.882267, 6.873236, 7.00591, 7.073929 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }