{ "ticker": { "uuid": "69eeda9b-73a0-4bb6-b339-2f7a5008f9f3", "symbol": "KTIS", "name": "Kaset Thai International Sugar Corporation Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 84.106, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.695, "architecture_energy": 47.251, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.829, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.61, "rotation_up": 23.75, "upward_expansion": 7.16, "deceleration": 60.27, "rotation_down": 52.74, "downward_expansion": 80.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.820667, 1.826182, 1.857905, 1.879247 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.82, "trend_reference": 1.905333, "distance_from_trend": -0.044787, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.674153, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.319411, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.417007, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.076142, "excess_performance": -0.268467, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.044787, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02474, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.319411, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000638, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.20417, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007911, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.076142, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.093805, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 434700, "relative_activity": 0.860136, "balance": 1.093805, "dry_up": 0.453763, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024514, "annualized_volatility": 0.123712, "from_high_reference": -0.201754, "from_low_reference": 0.028249 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.905333, "fair_value_reference": 2.674153, "structural_low": 1.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 45, "median_return": -0.013245, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.026207, "regime_survival": 0.911111, "best_return": 0.178379, "worst_return": -0.207692, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.023247, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.066487, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.194175, "worst_return": -0.290619, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.051093, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.030714, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.069769, "worst_return": -0.181782, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.483646, "energy": 76.519927, "activity_lines": [ 1.826667, 1.845818, 1.880524, 1.897785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.83, "volume": 183700, "typical_volume": 670535.0, "trend": 1.916, "fair_value": 2.699646, "relative_strength": -22.929827, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.763232, "energy": 53.658728, "activity_lines": [ 1.826667, 1.839091, 1.873571, 1.891935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.81, "volume": 79400, "typical_volume": 650820.0, "trend": 1.910667, "fair_value": 2.686745, "relative_strength": -22.125912, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.52969, "energy": 54.120269, "activity_lines": [ 1.821333, 1.830727, 1.865048, 1.885097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.82, "volume": 434700, "typical_volume": 505385.0, "trend": 1.905333, "fair_value": 2.674153, "relative_strength": -20.417007, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.695481, "energy": 47.250665, "activity_lines": [ 1.820667, 1.826182, 1.857905, 1.879247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }