{ "ticker": { "uuid": "69f1e6f9-0114-4aa9-b729-f164e3d33099", "symbol": "300167", "name": "Shenzhen Division Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.601, "architecture_energy": 80.237, "architecture_maturity": 28.454, "architecture_confidence": 86.433, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.67, "rotation_up": 12.93, "upward_expansion": 19.42, "deceleration": 37.96, "rotation_down": 73.78, "downward_expansion": 95.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.949333, 4.154364, 4.65581, 4.974387 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 4.03, "trend_reference": 5.238333, "distance_from_trend": -0.230671, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.663141, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.100149, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.312123, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.167355, "excess_performance": -0.174755, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.230671, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065751, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.100149, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.505029, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.303121, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131481, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.167355, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.656341, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35594242, "relative_activity": 1.170393, "balance": 1.656341, "dry_up": 1.08744, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.12636, "annualized_volatility": 0.561498, "from_high_reference": -0.488579, "from_low_reference": 0.279365 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.238333, "fair_value_reference": 3.663141, "structural_low": 3.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.009358, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": 0.04111, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.247379, "worst_return": -0.294931, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.03493, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.133902, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.278761, "worst_return": -0.334661, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.232604, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.197145, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": -0.057884, "worst_return": -0.460039, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"volume": 22941676, "typical_volume": 35023511.4, "trend": 5.349333, "fair_value": 3.642115, "relative_strength": -33.981641, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.260989, "energy": 81.034492, "activity_lines": [ 4.292667, 4.542909, 5.053, 5.24314 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.86, "volume": 44932800, "typical_volume": 33139960.9, "trend": 5.307333, "fair_value": 3.648397, "relative_strength": -31.961685, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.964656, "energy": 77.260262, "activity_lines": [ 4.110667, 4.366, 4.901667, 5.147054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.87, "volume": 28817100, "typical_volume": 31116308.4, "trend": 5.269, "fair_value": 3.654936, "relative_strength": -30.26353, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.498343, "energy": 85.785904, "activity_lines": [ 3.977333, 4.230364, 4.765333, 5.054323 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.03, "volume": 35594242, "typical_volume": 30412215.5, "trend": 5.238333, "fair_value": 3.663141, "relative_strength": -30.312123, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.601036, "energy": 80.236526, "activity_lines": [ 3.949333, 4.154364, 4.65581, 4.974387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }