{ "ticker": { "uuid": "69f3cc94-94d6-4169-868d-c5fe2cdf2461", "symbol": "600258", "name": "BTG Hotels (Group) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.7, "architecture_energy": 41.048, "architecture_maturity": 92.787, "architecture_confidence": 91.044, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.25, "rotation_up": 27.8, "upward_expansion": 19.72, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 36.2, "downward_expansion": 67.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.919333, 11.772495, 12.340993, 13.221159 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 11.93, "trend_reference": 14.414001, "distance_from_trend": -0.172333, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.383935, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.170602, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.490291, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.306798, "excess_performance": -0.263595, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.172333, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082435, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.170602, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124409, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.184903, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042432, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.306798, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.434398, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 77109749, "relative_activity": 1.052409, "balance": 0.434398, "dry_up": 1.330765, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071802, "annualized_volatility": 0.3096, "from_high_reference": -0.345225, "from_low_reference": 0.102588 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.414001, "fair_value_reference": 14.383935, "structural_low": 10.82, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.017871, "positive_rate": 0.423077, "directional_follow_through": 0.576923, "median_excess_return": -0.004947, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.292864, "worst_return": -0.129518, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.048942, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.068695, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.41585, "worst_return": -0.184445, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.039117, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.034915, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.330525, "worst_return": -0.135983, "sufficient": true 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"2026-07-17", "close": 11.62, "volume": 110295555, "typical_volume": 70703841.7, "trend": 14.894001, "fair_value": 14.526119, "relative_strength": -17.936343, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.362133, "energy": 68.63801, "activity_lines": [ 11.434, 11.761558, 12.798184, 13.749976 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.54, "volume": 99215644, "typical_volume": 71894722.0, "trend": 14.708001, "fair_value": 14.476555, "relative_strength": -19.205264, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.703102, "energy": 62.790055, "activity_lines": [ 11.461333, 11.658721, 12.580041, 13.533589 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.51, "volume": 103398241, "typical_volume": 73616600.2, "trend": 14.574668, "fair_value": 14.430938, "relative_strength": -12.514464, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.397309, "energy": 50.2696, "activity_lines": [ 11.838667, 11.766335, 12.477517, 13.391782 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.93, "volume": 77109749, "typical_volume": 73269734.3, "trend": 14.414001, "fair_value": 14.383935, "relative_strength": -18.490291, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.699778, "energy": 41.048282, "activity_lines": [ 11.919333, 11.772495, 12.340993, 13.221159 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }