{ "ticker": { "uuid": "69f5ffaf-1506-4187-a12e-baf1155a8af7", "symbol": "COAL", "name": "EXCHANGE TRADED CONCEPTS TRUST RANGE GLOBAL COAL INDEX ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.87, "architecture_energy": 34.829, "architecture_maturity": 33.821, "architecture_confidence": 73.72, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.48, "rotation_up": 23.58, "upward_expansion": 8.99, "deceleration": 59.48, "rotation_down": 44.14, "downward_expansion": 70.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.406853, 23.457769, 24.220078, 24.723756 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 24.205, "trend_reference": 25.261587, "distance_from_trend": -0.041826, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.797821, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.110432, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.308768, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.067705, "excess_performance": -0.193329, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.041826, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020818, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.110432, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054837, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.093088, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103448, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.067705, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.916138, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 82188, "relative_activity": 0.145963, "balance": 0.916138, "dry_up": 0.376587, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066091, "annualized_volatility": 0.275033, "from_high_reference": -0.168213, "from_low_reference": 0.282294 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.261587, "fair_value_reference": 21.797821, "structural_low": 22.0, 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balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.433839, "energy": 76.611204, "activity_lines": [ 23.216, 24.234545, 24.947905, 25.220507 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.9639, "volume": 417987, "typical_volume": 640390.75, "trend": 25.290628, "fair_value": 21.758501, "relative_strength": -10.530398, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.084972, "energy": 75.330224, "activity_lines": [ 22.9293, 23.9198, 24.711943, 25.071055 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.68, "volume": 256528, "typical_volume": 638771.8, "trend": 25.31042, "fair_value": 21.773169, "relative_strength": -7.192702, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.520596, "energy": 69.592826, "activity_lines": [ 23.10904, 23.773911, 24.5524, 24.967143 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.62, "volume": 91486, "typical_volume": 614097.65, "trend": 25.287087, "fair_value": 21.779585, "relative_strength": -12.318925, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.251304, "energy": 61.047712, "activity_lines": [ 22.979447, 23.453658, 24.300953, 24.793568 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.205, "volume": 82188, "typical_volume": 563075.8, "trend": 25.261587, "fair_value": 21.797821, "relative_strength": -9.308768, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.86976, "energy": 34.828874, "activity_lines": [ 23.406853, 23.457769, 24.220078, 24.723756 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }