{ "ticker": { "uuid": "69f6f858-4c21-4f67-8f33-5bb4fad65de9", "symbol": "600540", "name": "Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.673, "architecture_energy": 53.9, "architecture_maturity": 49.012, "architecture_confidence": 94.061, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.18, "rotation_up": 24.6, "upward_expansion": 9.07, "deceleration": 59.73, "rotation_down": 54.59, "downward_expansion": 82.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.532667, 3.563455, 4.037952, 4.296194 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.89, "trend_reference": 4.562333, "distance_from_trend": -0.147366, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.491538, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.133927, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.154297, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.237255, "excess_performance": -0.194051, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.147366, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072194, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.133927, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.364579, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.161543, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.206165, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.237255, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.457535, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 280511979, "relative_activity": 2.640614, "balance": 0.457535, "dry_up": 1.401211, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.118054, "annualized_volatility": 0.576006, "from_high_reference": -0.350584, "from_low_reference": 0.279605 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.562333, "fair_value_reference": 4.491538, "structural_low": 3.04, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.004016, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": 0.013234, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.319101, "worst_return": -0.173554, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.005026, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.000659, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.123894, "worst_return": -0.224256, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.031461, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.002899, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.154195, "worst_return": -0.299587, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.378748, "energy": 90.918713, "activity_lines": [ 3.566, 4.015273, 4.45, 4.601118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.29, "volume": 113418750, "typical_volume": 113601865.35, "trend": 4.676667, "fair_value": 4.521987, "relative_strength": -27.543517, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.359017, "energy": 90.296988, "activity_lines": [ 3.409333, 3.810364, 4.315048, 4.509097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.22, "volume": 108828669, "typical_volume": 103050426.95, "trend": 4.628333, "fair_value": 4.512179, "relative_strength": -29.34114, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.346686, "energy": 88.274662, "activity_lines": [ 3.307333, 3.634545, 4.183381, 4.415118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.48, "volume": 92642301, "typical_volume": 98980863.8, "trend": 4.585, "fair_value": 4.500321, "relative_strength": -23.341064, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.006287, "energy": 79.575071, "activity_lines": [ 3.356667, 3.547455, 4.086571, 4.341032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.89, "volume": 280511979, "typical_volume": 106229822.3, "trend": 4.562333, "fair_value": 4.491538, "relative_strength": -16.154297, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.672554, "energy": 53.900014, "activity_lines": [ 3.532667, 3.563455, 4.037952, 4.296194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }