{ "ticker": { "uuid": "69f6f960-111b-4c0e-8e6f-aaf0dedb306f", "symbol": "ALSN", "name": "Allison Transmission Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 51.501, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -2.515, "architecture_energy": 2.902, "architecture_maturity": 25.496, "architecture_confidence": 91.314, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 70.51, "rotation_up": 33.4, "upward_expansion": 30.83, "deceleration": 39.71, "rotation_down": 33.94, "downward_expansion": 26.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 117.399333, 117.232727, 118.088055, 118.322288 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 118.88, "trend_reference": 117.686885, "distance_from_trend": 0.010138, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 90.064674, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.31994, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.957291, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.033278, "excess_performance": -0.092346, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010138, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074661, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.31994, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.140838, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.009573, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094656, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.033278, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.73509, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5333565, "relative_activity": 1.09302, "balance": 0.73509, "dry_up": 0.89983, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075288, "annualized_volatility": 0.310448, "from_high_reference": -0.133976, "from_low_reference": 0.576905 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 117.686885, "fair_value_reference": 90.064674, "structural_low": 106.12, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.017621, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.012884, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.232233, "worst_return": -0.085587, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.06491, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.015158, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.357508, "worst_return": -0.153979, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.066882, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.122364, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.282402, "worst_return": -0.138147, "sufficient": 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{ "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034413, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.106002, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.155149, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.115823, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.154955, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 122.34, "volume": 4198292, "typical_volume": 4853305.95, "trend": 116.645319, "fair_value": 89.294336, "relative_strength": 9.114206, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.621017, "energy": 14.665002, "activity_lines": [ 117.420667, 117.130727, 118.522618, 118.348556 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 114.54, "volume": 4750154, "typical_volume": 4896035.0, "trend": 117.181825, "fair_value": 89.668901, "relative_strength": 0.89213, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.252866, "energy": 11.558018, "activity_lines": [ 116.51, 116.829636, 118.103446, 118.212729 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 118.88, "volume": 5333565, "typical_volume": 4879658.4, "trend": 117.686885, "fair_value": 90.064674, "relative_strength": 0.957291, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.514786, "energy": 2.901642, "activity_lines": [ 117.399333, 117.232727, 118.088055, 118.322288 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }