{ "ticker": { "uuid": "69fedf9e-1a95-4167-80fb-6397b87906d6", "symbol": "AJA-B", "name": "Byggm\u00e4stare Anders J Ahlstr\u00f6m Holding AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 86.922, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -7.616, "architecture_energy": 9.858, "architecture_maturity": 6.064, "architecture_confidence": 63.93, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.58, "rotation_up": 30.97, "upward_expansion": 31.82, "deceleration": 36.72, "rotation_down": 27.74, "downward_expansion": 47.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.9, 52.4, 52.214017, 52.324959 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 53.5, "trend_reference": 53.07292, "distance_from_trend": 0.008047, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 54.154579, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.012087, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.636243, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.03272, "excess_performance": -0.094214, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008047, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051282, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.012087, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046738, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.146362, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031434, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.03272, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.610091, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 71256, "relative_activity": 1.791153, "balance": 0.610091, "dry_up": 0.879954, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042416, "annualized_volatility": 0.18209, "from_high_reference": -0.199763, "from_low_reference": 0.084321 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.07292, "fair_value_reference": 54.154579, "structural_low": 49.339623, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.000868, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.019133, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.102362, "worst_return": -0.188623, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.01194, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.010886, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.139757, "worst_return": -0.187311, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.086421, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.078485, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.058346, "worst_return": -0.197015, "sufficient": true }, { 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 50.0, "volume": 17391, "typical_volume": 37894.25, "trend": 53.877106, "fair_value": 54.171644, "relative_strength": -17.274359, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.44068, "energy": 42.313467, "activity_lines": [ 51.166667, 51.663636, 51.822656, 52.373788 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 51.5, "volume": 27433, "typical_volume": 38151.65, "trend": 53.551113, "fair_value": 54.144549, "relative_strength": -15.721317, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.3809, "energy": 34.857615, "activity_lines": [ 51.166667, 51.590909, 51.777355, 52.220426 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 55.0, "volume": 23946, "typical_volume": 38377.75, "trend": 53.328629, "fair_value": 54.134373, "relative_strength": -10.905246, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.868459, "energy": 2.238963, "activity_lines": [ 52.4, 52.145455, 52.073896, 52.313903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.5, "volume": 71256, "typical_volume": 39782.2, "trend": 53.07292, "fair_value": 54.154579, "relative_strength": -14.636243, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.616079, "energy": 9.857674, "activity_lines": [ 52.9, 52.4, 52.214017, 52.324959 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }