{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6a0be5cc-79aa-4d1f-9124-7d1af4f00929", "symbol": "SPYQ", "name": "TRADR 2X LONG SPY QUARTERLY ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.1, "architecture_energy": 52.258, "architecture_maturity": 53.438, "architecture_confidence": 80.708, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.11, "rotation_up": 54.31, "upward_expansion": 80.36, "deceleration": 62.06, "rotation_down": 25.6, "downward_expansion": 7.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 189.305193, 187.348804, 184.561255, 178.611472 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 198.3814, "trend_reference": 172.224337, "distance_from_trend": 0.151878, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 148.06071, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.339865, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.139216, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.200761, "excess_performance": 0.013307, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.151878, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050718, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.339865, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052672, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.051392, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051902, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.200761, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.043643, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5245, "relative_activity": 0.117752, "balance": 1.043643, "dry_up": 0.172307, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041869, "annualized_volatility": 0.27159, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.464394 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 172.224337, "fair_value_reference": 148.06071, "structural_low": 135.47, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.034217, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.027327, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.04331, "worst_return": 0.001982, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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"Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.244017, "energy": 50.822549, "activity_lines": [ 186.18918, 185.740658, 179.164776, 174.104904 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 184.5536, "volume": 3235, "typical_volume": 43736.05, "trend": 169.876493, "fair_value": 146.766112, "relative_strength": 2.09353, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.646238, "energy": 43.975257, "activity_lines": [ 185.887193, 185.588913, 180.406931, 175.101443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 181.5544, "volume": 6457, "typical_volume": 43884.45, "trend": 170.399493, "fair_value": 147.132304, "relative_strength": 1.997316, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.075822, "energy": 37.655678, "activity_lines": [ 184.538913, 184.863135, 181.256648, 175.854856 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 185.9386, "volume": 15763, "typical_volume": 44374.0, "trend": 171.192957, "fair_value": 147.536537, "relative_strength": 3.733498, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.478813, "energy": 39.145011, "activity_lines": [ 185.03366, 184.969704, 182.401029, 176.857379 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 198.3814, "volume": 5245, "typical_volume": 44542.7, "trend": 172.224337, "fair_value": 148.06071, "relative_strength": 5.139216, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.100387, "energy": 52.258279, "activity_lines": [ 189.305193, 187.348804, 184.561255, 178.611472 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }