{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6a0cfe13-a8b6-4346-87e3-ced1e39bd71f", "symbol": "XDWU", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI World Utilities UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 1.445, "architecture_energy": 2.098, "architecture_maturity": 28.584, "architecture_confidence": 48.451, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 66.62, "rotation_up": 31.3, "upward_expansion": 50.89, "deceleration": 70.56, "rotation_down": 22.46, "downward_expansion": 26.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.645334, 48.797909, 48.776548, 48.834032 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 47.790001, "trend_reference": 48.6335, "distance_from_trend": -0.017344, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 39.015618, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.224894, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.86841, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.022465, "excess_performance": -0.028771, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.017344, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025086, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.224894, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071413, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.058684, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077289, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.022465, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.362219, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 130932, "relative_activity": 2.120373, "balance": 0.362219, "dry_up": 1.034879, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02414, "annualized_volatility": 0.175931, "from_high_reference": -0.065872, "from_low_reference": 0.144397 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.6335, "fair_value_reference": 39.015618, "structural_low": 46.740002, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.012049, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": 0.006923, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.070997, "worst_return": -0.107883, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.007242, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.003549, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.086078, "worst_return": -0.098265, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.060566, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.009541, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.220898, "worst_return": 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"modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.917131, "energy": 20.886164, "activity_lines": [ 48.942, 48.606636, 48.819928, 48.700785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 49.43, "volume": 32998, "typical_volume": 67558.05, "trend": 48.278333, "fair_value": 38.680682, "relative_strength": -0.146349, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.794061, "energy": 29.776605, "activity_lines": [ 49.172333, 48.786727, 48.858333, 48.784763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.91, "volume": 33029, "typical_volume": 62990.9, "trend": 48.449167, "fair_value": 38.794432, "relative_strength": -0.447634, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.767969, "energy": 46.415874, "activity_lines": [ 49.47, 49.041364, 48.949214, 48.890032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.34, "volume": 58654, "typical_volume": 59494.55, "trend": 48.548833, "fair_value": 38.906419, "relative_strength": -4.641416, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.581897, "energy": 19.46823, "activity_lines": [ 49.116, 48.966727, 48.886048, 48.882989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.790001, "volume": 130932, "typical_volume": 61749.5, "trend": 48.6335, "fair_value": 39.015618, "relative_strength": -5.86841, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.444633, "energy": 2.09772, "activity_lines": [ 48.645334, 48.797909, 48.776548, 48.834032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }