{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6a0dc274-0aca-45c1-9b15-e11c2391225b", "symbol": "603217", "name": "Yuanli Chemical Group Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 54.194, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.826, "architecture_energy": 46.878, "architecture_maturity": 18.67, "architecture_confidence": 75.308, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.03, "rotation_up": 19.85, "upward_expansion": 9.02, "deceleration": 49.61, "rotation_down": 59.87, "downward_expansion": 80.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.792667, 21.115647, 23.346333, 24.224902 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 24.83, "trend_reference": 25.160565, "distance_from_trend": -0.013138, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.243803, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.290286, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.809424, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.082409, "excess_performance": -0.039206, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.013138, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050471, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.290286, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.218821, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.028094, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.142217, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.082409, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.837539, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25163323, "relative_activity": 1.484167, "balance": 0.837539, "dry_up": 0.957851, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.112727, "annualized_volatility": 0.6188, "from_high_reference": -0.242882, "from_low_reference": 0.487717 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.160565, "fair_value_reference": 19.243803, "structural_low": 16.690001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.026655, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": -0.022118, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.19225, "worst_return": -0.232265, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.009089, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.012016, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.463676, "worst_return": -0.229798, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.089253, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.113102, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.222281, "worst_return": -0.24051, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"energy": 84.311511, "activity_lines": [ 19.089334, 20.580011, 23.338651, 24.247927 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.83, "volume": 25163323, "typical_volume": 16954513.9, "trend": 25.160565, "fair_value": 19.243803, "relative_strength": 2.809424, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.825813, "energy": 46.878066, "activity_lines": [ 20.792667, 21.115647, 23.346333, 24.224902 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }