{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6a11785c-6415-44f4-91fa-92976d18c2ba", "symbol": "BULL", "name": "WisdomTree Gold", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 66.392, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.744, "architecture_energy": 49.958, "architecture_maturity": 61.598, "architecture_confidence": 65.466, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.74, "rotation_up": 26.28, "upward_expansion": 20.07, "deceleration": 66.79, "rotation_down": 46.85, "downward_expansion": 70.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.568867, 35.522164, 36.546681, 37.637559 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 37.047001, "trend_reference": 39.002367, "distance_from_trend": -0.050135, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 28.166827, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.315271, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.06256, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.106354, "excess_performance": -0.277245, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.050135, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006039, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.315271, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.166503, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.140626, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134831, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.106354, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.544128, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12692, "relative_activity": 0.709088, "balance": 0.544128, "dry_up": 0.407829, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032543, "annualized_volatility": 0.221769, "from_high_reference": -0.19463, "from_low_reference": 0.294218 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.002367, "fair_value_reference": 28.166827, "structural_low": 34.16, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.004288, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.002184, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.069724, "worst_return": -0.037195, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.035985, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.007031, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.083315, "worst_return": -0.017147, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.063198, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.064271, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.06474, "worst_return": 0.061657, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.250418, "energy": 64.022512, "activity_lines": [ 35.154534, 35.603437, 36.941296, 38.061213 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.556999, "volume": 6787, "typical_volume": 19495.75, "trend": 39.051434, "fair_value": 28.046205, "relative_strength": -17.509429, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.39141, "energy": 67.392026, "activity_lines": [ 34.922134, 35.301164, 36.603819, 37.766878 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.047001, "volume": 12692, "typical_volume": 17899.05, "trend": 39.002367, "fair_value": 28.166827, "relative_strength": -14.06256, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.7443, "energy": 49.958393, "activity_lines": [ 35.568867, 35.522164, 36.546681, 37.637559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }