{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6a143a31-6137-45fa-9ad4-bb2b1c4aee79", "symbol": "SEMU", "name": "Amundi MSCI Semiconductors UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.117, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.562, "architecture_energy": 25.25, "architecture_maturity": 74.056, "architecture_confidence": 95.649, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.03, "rotation_up": 22.87, "upward_expansion": 55.98, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 32.46, "downward_expansion": 19.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 124.900669, 127.887092, 126.504286, 119.644957 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 128.660004, "trend_reference": 110.608166, "distance_from_trend": 0.163205, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 64.129102, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.006265, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 23.831913, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.420559, "excess_performance": 0.369323, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.163205, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.17048, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.006265, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.222638, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.238319, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.246529, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.420559, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.745607, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37393, "relative_activity": 0.820398, "balance": 1.745607, "dry_up": 1.106768, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075151, "annualized_volatility": 0.358404, "from_high_reference": -0.101787, "from_low_reference": 0.98274 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 110.608166, "fair_value_reference": 64.129102, "structural_low": 82.059998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.036064, "positive_rate": 0.785714, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": 0.04493, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.320268, "worst_return": -0.039827, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.206737, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.209861, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.573682, "worst_return": -0.032906, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.348208, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.310579, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.489367, "worst_return": -0.178535, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.161115, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.018284, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.051559, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.075687, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.352768, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.106736, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.33566, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.239407, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.087457, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023467, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 29.205, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 6238.35, "trend": 27.188333, "fair_value": 25.86625, "relative_strength": 25.501081, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": 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31.394538, "activity_lines": [ 127.672667, 130.370363, 125.325404, 117.69244 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 118.940002, "volume": 62872, "typical_volume": 44516.9, "trend": 109.232166, "fair_value": 63.492997, "relative_strength": 15.824938, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.329472, "energy": 24.891177, "activity_lines": [ 124.174668, 128.175091, 125.524142, 118.391548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 128.660004, "volume": 37393, "typical_volume": 45579.1, "trend": 110.608166, "fair_value": 64.129102, "relative_strength": 23.831913, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.562346, "energy": 25.249745, "activity_lines": [ 124.900669, 127.887092, 126.504286, 119.644957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }