{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6a20c49d-22ed-4752-b1b7-568e2bfd053e", "symbol": "BQP", "name": "Southern Packaging Group Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 59.789, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.606, "architecture_energy": 19.485, "architecture_maturity": 30.629, "architecture_confidence": 69.785, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.51, "rotation_up": 28.14, "upward_expansion": 55.28, "deceleration": 87.61, "rotation_down": 31.95, "downward_expansion": 18.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.306, 0.313182, 0.308333, 0.304441 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.32, "trend_reference": 0.299833, "distance_from_trend": 0.06726, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.441699, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.275524, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.408204, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.103448, "excess_performance": -0.051387, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.06726, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010995, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.275524, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003465, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.134082, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051845, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.103448, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.051054, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 200, "relative_activity": 0.034101, "balance": 0.051054, "dry_up": 0.204604, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092548, "annualized_volatility": 0.498782, "from_high_reference": -0.157895, "from_low_reference": 0.391304 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.299833, "fair_value_reference": 0.441699, "structural_low": 0.23, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": -0.017398, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.232143, "worst_return": -0.341176, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.240385, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.274938, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.101695, "worst_return": -0.341176, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.05, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.147957, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.058824, "worst_return": -0.362637, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.167596, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.288747, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.411765, "worst_return": -0.351648, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.091954, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.063158, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.118421, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.063492, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.084746, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034483, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.151515, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.232143, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015385, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.163636, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.545, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": 4870.0, "trend": 0.4215, "fair_value": 0.465665, "relative_strength": 35.877428, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.239294, 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.32, "volume": 4400, "typical_volume": 5845.0, "trend": 0.301, "fair_value": 0.443526, "relative_strength": -13.17137, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.64574, "energy": 20.979102, "activity_lines": [ 0.317667, 0.318364, 0.309286, 0.304806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.275, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 5855.0, "trend": 0.299667, "fair_value": 0.442468, "relative_strength": -25.167827, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.905537, "energy": 13.34886, "activity_lines": [ 0.302, 0.311636, 0.306619, 0.303129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.32, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 5865.0, "trend": 0.299833, "fair_value": 0.441699, "relative_strength": -13.408204, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.605706, "energy": 19.485018, "activity_lines": [ 0.306, 0.313182, 0.308333, 0.304441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }