{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6a23265f-6372-4f8c-a3b0-04788bd4611b", "symbol": "SDJ600", "name": "Invesco STOXX Europe 600 UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 89.137, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.234, "architecture_energy": 81.503, "architecture_maturity": 39.684, "architecture_confidence": 80.591, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.74, "rotation_up": 66.39, "upward_expansion": 90.41, "deceleration": 49.26, "rotation_down": 21.94, "downward_expansion": 17.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 166.396002, 165.268365, 162.354287, 159.857377 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 169.020004, "trend_reference": 157.254668, "distance_from_trend": 0.074817, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 132.050513, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.279965, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.894237, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.093839, "excess_performance": -0.077053, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.074817, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040618, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.279965, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060384, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.038942, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013452, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.093839, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.406133, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1042, "relative_activity": 0.169925, "balance": 1.406133, "dry_up": 0.453719, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016248, "annualized_volatility": 0.141994, "from_high_reference": -0.002008, "from_low_reference": 0.240241 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 157.254668, "fair_value_reference": 132.050513, "structural_low": 140.899994, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": 0.005258, "positive_rate": 0.547619, "directional_follow_through": 0.547619, "median_excess_return": -0.003719, "regime_survival": 0.738095, "best_return": 0.070918, "worst_return": -0.085439, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.016456, "positive_rate": 0.733333, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.024486, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.074793, "worst_return": -0.085359, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.076224, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.02036, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.149406, "worst_return": -0.138599, 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"relative_strength": -2.894988, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.745504, "energy": 64.176074, "activity_lines": [ 165.105335, 164.195274, 161.314192, 159.063227 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 169.020004, "volume": 1042, "typical_volume": 6132.1, "trend": 157.254668, "fair_value": 132.050513, "relative_strength": -3.894237, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.234178, "energy": 81.502621, "activity_lines": [ 166.396002, 165.268365, 162.354287, 159.857377 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }