{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6a259510-a568-4cc3-b552-fd3f6e0ee64b", "symbol": "688067", "name": "AVE Science&Technology CO.,LTD", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.973, "architecture_energy": 52.311, "architecture_maturity": 56.413, "architecture_confidence": 89.091, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.15, "rotation_up": 24.41, "upward_expansion": 8.59, "deceleration": 60.49, "rotation_down": 51.55, "downward_expansion": 79.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.325363, 20.478791, 22.371009, 23.712129 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 22.200001, "trend_reference": 25.269128, "distance_from_trend": -0.121458, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.881337, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.06315, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.772443, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.20912, "excess_performance": -0.165916, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.121458, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062881, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.06315, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.325498, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.127724, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.169778, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.20912, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.271027, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5830942, "relative_activity": 1.183063, "balance": 0.271027, "dry_up": 1.192597, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096923, "annualized_volatility": 0.385616, "from_high_reference": -0.254533, "from_low_reference": 0.259217 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.269128, "fair_value_reference": 20.881337, "structural_low": 17.629999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.02022, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.011993, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.29774, "worst_return": -0.090044, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.108251, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.00202, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.446532, "worst_return": -0.17036, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.172489, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.147135, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.367775, "worst_return": -0.105969, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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25.495461, "fair_value": 20.889975, "relative_strength": -26.342273, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.37042, "energy": 79.045359, "activity_lines": [ 19.609571, 20.649658, 23.008283, 24.281372 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.82, "volume": 4629872, "typical_volume": 4986269.1, "trend": 25.347794, "fair_value": 20.876226, "relative_strength": -20.278253, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.212167, "energy": 63.637, "activity_lines": [ 19.56108, 20.280133, 22.555265, 23.915213 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.200001, "volume": 5830942, "typical_volume": 4928683.9, "trend": 25.269128, "fair_value": 20.881337, "relative_strength": -12.772443, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.973305, "energy": 52.310846, "activity_lines": [ 20.325363, 20.478791, 22.371009, 23.712129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }