{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6a3a5b00-6763-406e-8cb5-2ccb72513305", "symbol": "NMT", "name": "Neometals Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.55, "architecture_energy": 62.589, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 93.237, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.73, "rotation_up": 29.63, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.98, "rotation_down": 49.9, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.022133, 0.022291, 0.02739, 0.033832 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.025, "trend_reference": 0.043183, "distance_from_trend": -0.421073, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.108524, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.769636, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -51.383342, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.568966, "excess_performance": -0.632671, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.421073, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.206918, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.769636, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036724, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.513833, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.167956, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.568966, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.501195, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6481776, "relative_activity": 1.524362, "balance": 0.501195, "dry_up": 1.169304, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.184615, "annualized_volatility": 0.80974, "from_high_reference": -0.679487, "from_low_reference": 0.388889 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.043183, "fair_value_reference": 0.108524, "structural_low": 0.018, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.069225, "positive_rate": 0.35, "directional_follow_through": 0.65, "median_excess_return": -0.06223, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.516854, "worst_return": -0.288343, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.225807, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.265856, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.357143, "worst_return": -0.595968, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.154589, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.219219, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.058824, "worst_return": -0.604023, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.179345, "energy": 87.673812, "activity_lines": [ 0.021133, 0.0244, 0.031607, 0.038425 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.02, "volume": 7024610, "typical_volume": 4030554.35, "trend": 0.045683, "fair_value": 0.114999, "relative_strength": -60.124325, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.914159, "energy": 68.633519, "activity_lines": [ 0.020533, 0.023036, 0.029814, 0.036673 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.021, "volume": 2723271, "typical_volume": 4038790.75, "trend": 0.04435, "fair_value": 0.111858, "relative_strength": -58.33635, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.249929, "energy": 66.051243, "activity_lines": [ 0.020733, 0.022182, 0.028326, 0.035081 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.025, "volume": 6481776, "typical_volume": 4252123.35, "trend": 0.043183, "fair_value": 0.108524, "relative_strength": -51.383342, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.549647, "energy": 62.589275, "activity_lines": [ 0.022133, 0.022291, 0.02739, 0.033832 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }