{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6a3cace5-cb2c-4eb5-9e1a-39e67462d96b", "symbol": "CMTL", "name": "Comtech Telecommunications Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.29, "architecture_energy": 63.262, "architecture_maturity": 32.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.482, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.41, "rotation_up": 15.09, "upward_expansion": 11.37, "deceleration": 48.33, "rotation_down": 70.93, "downward_expansion": 87.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.713333, 1.973364, 2.815119, 3.252892 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.73, "trend_reference": 3.922167, "distance_from_trend": -0.558917, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.187532, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.586869, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -57.733056, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.696491, "excess_performance": -0.883945, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.558917, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099388, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.586869, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.410979, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.577331, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.554374, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.696491, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.302046, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1833947, "relative_activity": 0.790156, "balance": 0.302046, "dry_up": 0.786955, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.44406, "annualized_volatility": 1.23581, "from_high_reference": -0.721417, "from_low_reference": 0.08805 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.922167, "fair_value_reference": 4.187532, "structural_low": 1.59, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.048048, "positive_rate": 0.482759, "directional_follow_through": 0.517241, "median_excess_return": -0.031033, "regime_survival": 0.827586, "best_return": 0.570755, "worst_return": -0.502326, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.059747, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.023813, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.658537, "worst_return": -0.711268, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.141026, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.242586, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.489362, "worst_return": -0.595371, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"volume": 2030838, "typical_volume": 2307333.0, "trend": 4.275167, "fair_value": 4.342468, "relative_strength": -59.505393, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.172963, "energy": 90.318746, "activity_lines": [ 1.869667, 2.743636, 3.322476, 3.727548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.73, "volume": 1945061, "typical_volume": 2365651.75, "trend": 4.175167, "fair_value": 4.289071, "relative_strength": -55.696191, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.35168, "energy": 87.44653, "activity_lines": [ 1.784667, 2.446455, 3.139786, 3.563344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.68, "volume": 1496228, "typical_volume": 2384110.25, "trend": 4.046833, "fair_value": 4.236378, "relative_strength": -57.027455, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.772068, "energy": 81.853262, "activity_lines": [ 1.727667, 2.177091, 2.967952, 3.402366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.73, "volume": 1833947, "typical_volume": 2320994.25, "trend": 3.922167, "fair_value": 4.187532, "relative_strength": -57.733056, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.289868, "energy": 63.262326, "activity_lines": [ 1.713333, 1.973364, 2.815119, 3.252892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }