{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6a40ebc1-d65e-4d4f-9a91-5236b07e8a81", "symbol": "688182", "name": "Jiangsu Cai Qin Technology Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 84.287, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -25.484, "architecture_energy": 45.297, "architecture_maturity": 19.879, "architecture_confidence": 68.54, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.32, "rotation_up": 14.03, "upward_expansion": 20.02, "deceleration": 58.55, "rotation_down": 68.07, "downward_expansion": 45.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.936, 30.648993, 32.823433, 32.579304 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 27.690001, "trend_reference": 32.518766, "distance_from_trend": -0.148492, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.427378, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.234652, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.385956, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.176403, "excess_performance": -0.133199, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.148492, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087662, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.234652, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.324847, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.06386, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.157711, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.176403, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.037814, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35085729, "relative_activity": 1.021757, "balance": 1.037814, "dry_up": 1.132245, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.211239, "annualized_volatility": 0.831573, "from_high_reference": -0.404958, "from_low_reference": 0.277214 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.518766, "fair_value_reference": 22.427378, "structural_low": 21.68, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.959999, "volume": 43732200, "typical_volume": 32715380.05, "trend": 32.758198, "fair_value": 22.401944, "relative_strength": -16.580592, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.97443, "energy": 34.865169, "activity_lines": [ 30.452666, 34.236528, 34.295378, 33.547486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.639999, "volume": 32684585, "typical_volume": 33377259.65, "trend": 32.57862, "fair_value": 22.392435, "relative_strength": -21.345493, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.057196, "energy": 46.13307, "activity_lines": [ 26.670666, 31.83317, 33.304572, 32.894699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.690001, "volume": 35085729, "typical_volume": 34338627.25, "trend": 32.518766, "fair_value": 22.427378, "relative_strength": -6.385956, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.48384, "energy": 45.297025, "activity_lines": [ 25.936, 30.648993, 32.823433, 32.579304 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }