{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6a4389a2-4452-46ae-ae93-d0c12a5b6778", "symbol": "TEM", "name": "Tempest Minerals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.755, "architecture_energy": 83.67, "architecture_maturity": 42.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.19, "rotation_up": 18.31, "upward_expansion": 21.23, "deceleration": 37.38, "rotation_down": 65.89, "downward_expansion": 94.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.004, 0.004236, 0.004869, 0.005304 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.004, "trend_reference": 0.005817, "distance_from_trend": -0.312321, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.007202, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.444593, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -43.288916, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.384615, "excess_performance": -0.448321, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.312321, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.1275, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.444593, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.194593, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.432889, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.331348, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.384615, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.141667, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 51, "relative_activity": 3.5e-05, "balance": 0.141667, "dry_up": 0.070738, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.134615, "annualized_volatility": 0.654774, "from_high_reference": -0.666667, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.005817, "fair_value_reference": 0.007202, "structural_low": 0.004, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.083916, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.087877, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.516779, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.125, "positive_rate": 0.181818, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.141877, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.285714, "worst_return": -0.391304, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.288462, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.291131, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.504163, "worst_return": -0.461538, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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0.005, 0.005536, 0.005838 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.004, "volume": 4310, "typical_volume": 3348077.7, "trend": 0.006117, "fair_value": 0.007381, "relative_strength": -41.361566, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.050442, "energy": 89.747635, "activity_lines": [ 0.0042, 0.004755, 0.00535, 0.005695 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.004, "volume": 373947, "typical_volume": 1619337.55, "trend": 0.006017, "fair_value": 0.007317, "relative_strength": -41.021592, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.240387, "energy": 89.360402, "activity_lines": [ 0.004067, 0.004545, 0.005174, 0.005558 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.004, "volume": 36340, "typical_volume": 1538634.65, "trend": 0.005917, "fair_value": 0.00726, "relative_strength": -42.00876, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.823262, "energy": 87.245303, "activity_lines": [ 0.004, 0.004373, 0.005012, 0.005428 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.004, "volume": 51, "typical_volume": 1465441.0, "trend": 0.005817, "fair_value": 0.007202, "relative_strength": -43.288916, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.755011, "energy": 83.669688, "activity_lines": [ 0.004, 0.004236, 0.004869, 0.005304 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }