{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6a49369b-ba94-414d-bca4-8f1fee8abc04", "symbol": "LBTYA", "name": "Liberty Global PLC", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.72, "architecture_energy": 67.094, "architecture_maturity": 11.16, "architecture_confidence": 88.769, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.4, "rotation_up": 11.11, "upward_expansion": 14.92, "deceleration": 38.18, "rotation_down": 68.69, "downward_expansion": 88.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.379333, 10.678909, 11.205571, 11.444667 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.55, "trend_reference": 11.587, "distance_from_trend": -0.089497, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.451007, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.009472, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.632532, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.102128, "excess_performance": -0.289581, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.089497, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000604, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.009472, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.174273, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.196325, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104649, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.102128, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.63694, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12502446, "relative_activity": 1.219186, "balance": 0.63694, "dry_up": 1.246031, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081821, "annualized_volatility": 0.393362, "from_high_reference": -0.219675, "from_low_reference": 0.119363 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.587, "fair_value_reference": 10.451007, "structural_low": 9.425, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.010093, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.025612, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.288498, "worst_return": -0.135084, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.021765, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.000707, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.161567, "worst_return": -0.173157, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.018382, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.100485, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.074233, "worst_return": -0.168333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"activity_lines": [ 11.486667, 11.724727, 11.896143, 11.852667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.61, "volume": 10367167, "typical_volume": 10097557.1, "trend": 11.670667, "fair_value": 10.431999, "relative_strength": -20.686685, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.285528, "energy": 52.220612, "activity_lines": [ 11.15, 11.500909, 11.759571, 11.78286 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.41, "volume": 6660911, "typical_volume": 9729225.35, "trend": 11.645, "fair_value": 10.435882, "relative_strength": -18.572071, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.156563, "energy": 60.916268, "activity_lines": [ 10.823333, 11.265273, 11.613143, 11.701527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.69, "volume": 15500387, "typical_volume": 9723930.05, "trend": 11.598, "fair_value": 10.436636, "relative_strength": -22.682208, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.006557, "energy": 80.733229, "activity_lines": [ 10.393333, 10.930364, 11.409238, 11.575398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.61, "volume": 16447225, "typical_volume": 10059130.6, "trend": 11.588333, "fair_value": 10.444575, "relative_strength": -15.477711, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.950146, "energy": 72.688504, "activity_lines": [ 10.370667, 10.795818, 11.306524, 11.511656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.55, "volume": 12502446, "typical_volume": 10254751.05, "trend": 11.587, "fair_value": 10.451007, "relative_strength": -19.632532, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.720481, "energy": 67.094181, "activity_lines": [ 10.379333, 10.678909, 11.205571, 11.444667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }