{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6a4c5fa6-9e90-4a20-ab91-c2a7425060fc", "symbol": "CMCO", "name": "Columbus McKinnon Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 39.358, "architecture_energy": 43.51, "architecture_maturity": 22.621, "architecture_confidence": 94.618, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.56, "rotation_up": 67.97, "upward_expansion": 43.48, "deceleration": 30.4, "rotation_down": 19.59, "downward_expansion": 23.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.834923, 16.218096, 15.514123, 15.619092 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 20.22, "trend_reference": 16.402139, "distance_from_trend": 0.232766, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.034865, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.223349, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.475976, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.104483, "excess_performance": -0.291937, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.232766, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030614, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.223349, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.206972, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.09476, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.272404, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.104483, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.172994, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3765198, "relative_activity": 1.392696, "balance": 2.172994, "dry_up": 1.525295, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.12243, "annualized_volatility": 0.633858, "from_high_reference": -0.164674, "from_low_reference": 0.686405 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.402139, "fair_value_reference": 26.034865, "structural_low": 11.99, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.001106, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.011422, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.143519, "worst_return": -0.129741, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.031822, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.084958, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.336746, "worst_return": -0.447446, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.02969, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.060016, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.295486, "worst_return": -0.516807, "sufficient": 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-52.127452, "energy": 33.858526, "activity_lines": [ 13.897956, 14.036718, 14.449161, 15.210466 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.064386, "volume": 2799359, "typical_volume": 2441680.5, "trend": 16.311239, "fair_value": 26.258099, "relative_strength": -7.630713, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.948099, "energy": 14.948336, "activity_lines": [ 14.574882, 14.374642, 14.580909, 15.191133 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.103864, "volume": 7293494, "typical_volume": 2674671.5, "trend": 16.379257, "fair_value": 26.139592, "relative_strength": 9.027874, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 14.094292, "energy": 19.50139, "activity_lines": [ 16.173342, 15.232755, 15.005129, 15.371302 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.22, "volume": 3765198, "typical_volume": 2703531.95, "trend": 16.402139, "fair_value": 26.034865, "relative_strength": 9.475976, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.357916, "energy": 43.509969, "activity_lines": [ 17.834923, 16.218096, 15.514123, 15.619092 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }