{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6a4cd0c8-4d16-49ec-9f00-c3984014c762", "symbol": "ADMA", "name": "ADMA Biologics Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -23.848, "architecture_energy": 26.083, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 60.928, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.32, "rotation_up": 28.47, "upward_expansion": 29.57, "deceleration": 50.0, "rotation_down": 31.12, "downward_expansion": 53.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.976667, 8.833091, 8.806762, 9.695742 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 9.9, "trend_reference": 11.353, "distance_from_trend": -0.127984, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.920449, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.233773, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -37.939776, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.397444, "excess_performance": -0.584897, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.127984, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.216566, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.233773, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.114496, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.379398, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.207051, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.397444, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.913125, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18115176, "relative_activity": 0.673263, "balance": 1.913125, "dry_up": 0.519487, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078477, "annualized_volatility": 0.7868, "from_high_reference": -0.516082, "from_low_reference": 0.373074 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.353, "fair_value_reference": 12.920449, "structural_low": 7.2101, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.053333, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.003571, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.239018, "worst_return": -0.241445, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.176645, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.089604, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.432877, "worst_return": -0.253333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.048271, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.149744, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.865753, "worst_return": -0.113333, "sufficient": false }, { 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.21377, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.245748, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.078744, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.056635, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030337, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.176645, 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"fair_value": 12.857436, "relative_strength": -46.969737, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.77613, "energy": 42.968449, "activity_lines": [ 8.672, 8.570545, 8.848333, 10.031011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.46, "volume": 9669638, "typical_volume": 27306862.15, "trend": 11.621333, "fair_value": 12.885705, "relative_strength": -44.992852, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.66235, "energy": 42.150904, "activity_lines": [ 8.574667, 8.572909, 8.743048, 9.806796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.9, "volume": 18115176, "typical_volume": 26906541.9, "trend": 11.353, "fair_value": 12.920449, "relative_strength": -37.939776, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.8475, "energy": 26.083209, "activity_lines": [ 8.976667, 8.833091, 8.806762, 9.695742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }