{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6a509de0-c678-449f-adca-36f674add670", "symbol": "ARIS", "name": "Aris Mining Corporation", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 72.009, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.83, "architecture_energy": 35.364, "architecture_maturity": 14.614, "architecture_confidence": 80.308, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.58, "rotation_up": 22.97, "upward_expansion": 6.83, "deceleration": 48.26, "rotation_down": 50.75, "downward_expansion": 77.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.180667, 21.355273, 22.526809, 23.43957 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 24.23, "trend_reference": 24.487667, "distance_from_trend": -0.010522, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.73782, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.25651, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.466761, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.00124, "excess_performance": -0.119182, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.010522, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026708, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.25651, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.683258, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.044668, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.352197, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.00124, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.672534, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3595500, "relative_activity": 1.24703, "balance": 0.672534, "dry_up": 1.235342, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.113146, "annualized_volatility": 0.738416, "from_high_reference": -0.23006, "from_low_reference": 1.642312 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.487667, "fair_value_reference": 10.73782, "structural_low": 18.530001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.012988, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.028814, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.176214, "worst_return": -0.178347, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.113636, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.056489, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.209913, "worst_return": -0.204182, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.006067, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.046866, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.786792, "worst_return": -0.117021, "sufficient": true 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3535660.0, "trend": 24.549667, "fair_value": 10.500833, "relative_strength": -6.982743, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.493401, "energy": 54.864309, "activity_lines": [ 20.798667, 21.483454, 22.959714, 23.829355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.73, "volume": 3629900, "typical_volume": 3466150.0, "trend": 24.452, "fair_value": 10.60109, "relative_strength": -15.845918, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.475965, "energy": 72.138189, "activity_lines": [ 19.980667, 20.873273, 22.46519, 23.453892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.23, "volume": 3595500, "typical_volume": 2883250.0, "trend": 24.487667, "fair_value": 10.73782, "relative_strength": 4.466761, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.829778, "energy": 35.364372, "activity_lines": [ 21.180667, 21.355273, 22.526809, 23.43957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }