{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6a53ae51-6a93-4f04-a10d-1be18b111e26", "symbol": "NU", "name": "Nu Holdings Ltd", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -8.375, "architecture_energy": 14.591, "architecture_maturity": 20.327, "architecture_confidence": 65.564, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.23, "rotation_up": 36.04, "upward_expansion": 32.44, "deceleration": 44.74, "rotation_down": 17.59, "downward_expansion": 40.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.982, 13.690727, 13.490048, 13.773613 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 13.84, "trend_reference": 14.454667, "distance_from_trend": -0.042524, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.529038, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.104634, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.204227, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.204598, "excess_performance": -0.330223, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.042524, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070499, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.104634, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039919, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.182042, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009825, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.204598, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.508295, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 251194123, "relative_activity": 0.82246, "balance": 1.508295, "dry_up": 1.604597, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085149, "annualized_volatility": 0.384733, "from_high_reference": -0.270811, "from_low_reference": 0.235714 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.454667, "fair_value_reference": 12.529038, "structural_low": 11.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.035341, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.07527, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.198374, "worst_return": -0.175579, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.032129, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.131447, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.290244, "worst_return": -0.142059, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.166493, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.098804, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.374486, "worst_return": -0.0415, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.096804, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048193, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001668, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.119342, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.060795, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.133333, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.080393, "energy": 21.677128, "activity_lines": [ 13.524667, 13.144364, 13.352143, 13.885505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.09, "volume": 675138137, "typical_volume": 306271432.2, "trend": 14.665, "fair_value": 12.448526, "relative_strength": -13.013265, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.195421, "energy": 18.40756, "activity_lines": [ 13.765333, 13.359818, 13.397571, 13.842667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.33, "volume": 271896327, "typical_volume": 305209887.8, "trend": 14.575333, "fair_value": 12.490064, "relative_strength": -12.459104, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.279127, "energy": 14.363109, "activity_lines": [ 13.994, 13.584364, 13.46819, 13.821054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.84, "volume": 251194123, "typical_volume": 305418180.1, "trend": 14.454667, "fair_value": 12.529038, "relative_strength": -18.204227, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.375184, "energy": 14.590903, "activity_lines": [ 13.982, 13.690727, 13.490048, 13.773613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }