{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6a5d9de6-e7c9-4463-98c7-a44dfef8f5bb", "symbol": "GDXU", "name": "BetaPro Canadian Gold Miners 2x Daily Bull ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.852, "architecture_energy": 39.539, "architecture_maturity": 54.018, "architecture_confidence": 76.825, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.95, "rotation_up": 27.22, "upward_expansion": 14.98, "deceleration": 62.28, "rotation_down": 47.13, "downward_expansion": 73.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.306, 27.161091, 30.08627, 33.368803 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 34.400002, "trend_reference": 37.992889, "distance_from_trend": -0.094567, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.45656, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.090352, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.641898, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.196637, "excess_performance": -0.317058, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.094567, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063733, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.090352, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.69845, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.106419, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.31812, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.196637, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.551095, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1475200, "relative_activity": 1.425225, "balance": 0.551095, "dry_up": 1.596542, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.148189, "annualized_volatility": 1.202257, "from_high_reference": -0.470769, "from_low_reference": 1.280663 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.992889, "fair_value_reference": 16.45656, "structural_low": 20.83, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.06949, "positive_rate": 0.647059, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": 0.065269, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.426621, "worst_return": -0.21369, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.189668, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.136474, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.934911, "worst_return": -0.132009, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.62305, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.524906, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.278107, "worst_return": -0.049681, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.430967, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034063, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.263372, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.127924, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.24337, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": 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25.615333, 27.756849, 31.962064, 35.539212 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.799999, "volume": 1463900, "typical_volume": 1006240.0, "trend": 38.771222, "fair_value": 16.140171, "relative_strength": -33.081557, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.952949, "energy": 72.866224, "activity_lines": [ 24.952, 26.871758, 30.965683, 34.604265 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.549999, "volume": 2133700, "typical_volume": 1054185.0, "trend": 38.328444, "fair_value": 16.263953, "relative_strength": -36.398284, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.20951, "energy": 75.634575, "activity_lines": [ 24.203999, 25.943272, 29.964206, 33.622251 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.400002, "volume": 1475200, "typical_volume": 1035065.0, "trend": 37.992889, "fair_value": 16.45656, "relative_strength": -10.641898, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.852063, "energy": 39.539098, "activity_lines": [ 27.306, 27.161091, 30.08627, 33.368803 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }