{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6a637c0a-2a1f-4aec-8aa8-494c58204d74", "symbol": "STAF", "name": "Staffline Group PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 83.614, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 1.667, "architecture_energy": 15.374, "architecture_maturity": 24.577, "architecture_confidence": 61.767, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.64, "rotation_up": 42.24, "upward_expansion": 34.98, "deceleration": 43.88, "rotation_down": 17.35, "downward_expansion": 43.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.424933, 0.413, 0.411, 0.419088 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.437, "trend_reference": 0.43495, "distance_from_trend": 0.004713, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.352333, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.240303, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.819649, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.143137, "excess_performance": -0.194373, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004713, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03391, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.240303, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.107648, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.088196, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092994, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.143137, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.142352, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 262579, "relative_activity": 0.245166, "balance": 3.142352, "dry_up": 1.292835, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07003, "annualized_volatility": 0.352754, "from_high_reference": -0.167619, "from_low_reference": 0.193989 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.43495, "fair_value_reference": 0.352333, "structural_low": 0.366, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.005948, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.002343, "regime_survival": 0.357143, "best_return": 0.287879, "worst_return": -0.239766, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.086957, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.121362, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.192593, "worst_return": -0.309711, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.122776, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.165088, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.388889, "worst_return": -0.353362, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.213415, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.596958, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.162437, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.031915, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.120879, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.137255, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010158, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.152174, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.175676, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.33, "volume": 11940273, "typical_volume": 1769749.2, "trend": 0.3426, "fair_value": 0.481133, "relative_strength": -5.547603, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.131442, "energy": 50.290998, "activity_lines": [ 0.393333, 0.398218, 0.406274, 0.420195 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.42, "volume": 1973594, "typical_volume": 952563.0, "trend": 0.436217, "fair_value": 0.35075, "relative_strength": -11.601049, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.133499, "energy": 22.478754, "activity_lines": [ 0.402733, 0.402, 0.406781, 0.419073 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.435, "volume": 2869225, "typical_volume": 1076369.6, "trend": 0.43555, "fair_value": 0.351615, "relative_strength": -9.394348, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.389635, "energy": 13.054794, "activity_lines": [ 0.415133, 0.4076, 0.408812, 0.418995 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.437, "volume": 262579, "typical_volume": 1071027.3, "trend": 0.43495, "fair_value": 0.352333, "relative_strength": -8.819649, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.666561, "energy": 15.374347, "activity_lines": [ 0.424933, 0.413, 0.411, 0.419088 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }